Monterey Bay vs Colorado Springs preview
In the matchup between Monterey Bay and Colorado Springs, the 1X2 probabilities show Colorado Springs at 43% and Monterey Bay at 28%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, which aligns with Colorado Springs' stronger expected goals of 1.42 compared to Monterey Bay's 1.12.
Both teams to score sits at 52%, indicating a reasonable chance for goals from both sides. However, Monterey Bay's recent form of L-W-L-L-D-D could hinder their performance against Colorado Springs, who have a more stable form with D-D-D-D-W-W. This could impact the expected outcome, making it crucial to consider both teams' current momentum.
Monterey Bay vs Colorado Springs: model vs market
| Source | Monterey Bay | Draw | Colorado Springs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 28% | 29% | 43% |
| Market | 21% | 24% | 56% |
| Published | 22% | 25% | 53% |
| Edge | +8% | +5% | -13% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.42 vs 1.12.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.80, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Monterey Bay vs Colorado Springs odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Colorado Springs, 10 snapshots since 2026-10-13.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monterey Bay | 3.85 | 4.42 | +0.56 |
| Draw | 3.73 | 3.83 | +0.10 |
| Colorado Springs | 1.75 | 1.62 | -0.12 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Monterey Bay and Colorado Springs expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.54
- Attack rating (Monterey Bay / Colorado Springs)
- 0.91 / 0.90
- Defence rating (Monterey Bay / Colorado Springs)
- 1.34 / 0.82
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Monterey Bay vs Colorado Springs score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Monterey Bay goals. Columns: Colorado Springs goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Monterey Bay vs Colorado Springs goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 52%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Monterey Bay vs Colorado Springs
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Monterey Bay | 22% | 4.45 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.00 | |
| Colorado Springs | 53% | 1.90 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 47% | 2.15 |
| Under 2.5 | 53% | 1.87 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52% | 1.91 |
| No | 48% | 2.10 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Monterey Bay or draw) | 47% | 2.11 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Colorado Springs) | 78% | 1.29 | |
| Handicap -1 | Colorado Springs win by 2+ | 21% | 4.74 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Monterey Bay and Colorado Springs recent form
Monterey Bay
1W 2D 3L
Colorado Springs
2W 4D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Monterey Bay at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-3-6
- Win rate
- 31%
- Goals for / match
- 1.31
- Goals against / match
- 1.54
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 13
- They have won 5 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Colorado Springs away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-4-6
- Win rate
- 29%
- Goals for / match
- 1.29
- Goals against / match
- 1.64
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 14
- They have won 11 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 7 penalties (86%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Monterey Bay at home only, Colorado Springs away only.
Monterey Bay vs Colorado Springs head-to-head
Last 9 meetings: Monterey Bay 3 · draws 0 · Colorado Springs 6.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-18 | Colorado Springs | 4-1 | Monterey Bay | USL Championship |
| 2025-09-07 | Colorado Springs | 2-1 | Monterey Bay | USL Championship |
| 2025-04-13 | Monterey Bay | 2-1 | Colorado Springs | USL Championship |
| 2024-10-20 | Monterey Bay | 0-1 | Colorado Springs | USL Championship |
| 2024-06-30 | Colorado Springs | 1-0 | Monterey Bay | USL Championship |
| 2023-08-27 | Monterey Bay | 2-1 | Colorado Springs | USL Championship |
| 2023-07-05 | Colorado Springs | 4-0 | Monterey Bay | USL Championship |
| 2022-05-29 | Monterey Bay | 4-2 | Colorado Springs | USL Championship |
| 2022-03-20 | Colorado Springs | 1-0 | Monterey Bay | USL Championship |
Other Group Stage fixtures
- Hartford Athletic v Brooklyn — match page 2026-10-17
- Tampa Bay Rowdies v Detroit City — match page 2026-10-17
- Rhode Island vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- FC Tulsa vs Oakland Roots 2026-10-18
- San Antonio v New Mexico United — match page 2026-10-18
- El Paso Locomotive vs Sacramento Republic — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Orange County SC vs Phoenix Rising 2026-10-18
- Las Vegas Lights vs Lexington — team news & stats 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- Monterey Bay, previous: New Mexico United vs Monterey Bay: odds and pick
- Colorado Springs, previous: Sacramento Republic – Colorado Springs, 2026-10-11