Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Detroit City preview
In the match between Tampa Bay Rowdies and Detroit City, the 1X2 probabilities show Tampa Bay Rowdies at 46%, while Detroit City sits at 23%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 15% chance according to our model. Tampa Bay Rowdies have a recent form of W-L-D-W-L-W, while Detroit City has performed better with W-W-W-D-W-L.
The expected goals for both teams are close, with Tampa Bay Rowdies at 0.88 and Detroit City at 0.82. However, the likelihood of Over 2.5 goals is only 24%, and both teams to score stands at 34%. These lower figures suggest that a high-scoring match may not occur, which could impact predictions.
Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Detroit City: model vs market
| Source | Tampa Bay Rowdies | Draw | Detroit City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 34% | 37% | 30% |
| Market | 50% | 29% | 20% |
| Published | 46% | 31% | 23% |
| Edge | -17% | +7% | +10% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.85, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Detroit City odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Tampa Bay Rowdies, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Rowdies | 1.83 | 1.79 | -0.04 |
| Draw | 2.92 | 3.08 | +0.16 |
| Detroit City | 4.56 | 4.47 | -0.09 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Tampa Bay Rowdies and Detroit City expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.70
- Attack rating (Tampa Bay Rowdies / Detroit City)
- 1.27 / 0.81
- Defence rating (Tampa Bay Rowdies / Detroit City)
- 0.86 / 0.47
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Detroit City score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Tampa Bay Rowdies goals. Columns: Detroit City goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Detroit City goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 34%
- No goals (0–0)
- 20%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Detroit City
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | 46% | 2.16 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.21 | |
| Detroit City | 23% | 4.42 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 24% | 4.13 |
| Under 2.5 | 76% | 1.32 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 34% | 2.94 |
| No | 66% | 1.52 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Tampa Bay Rowdies or draw) | 77% | 1.29 |
| 12 (either side) | 69% | 1.45 | |
| X2 (draw or Detroit City) | 54% | 1.86 | |
| Handicap -1 | Tampa Bay Rowdies win by 2+ | 12% | 8.23 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Tampa Bay Rowdies and Detroit City recent form
Tampa Bay Rowdies
3W 1D 2L
Detroit City
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Tampa Bay Rowdies at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-2-3
- Win rate
- 62%
- Goals for / match
- 2.23
- Goals against / match
- 1.23
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 13
- They have won 16 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 14 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Detroit City away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-4-5
- Win rate
- 31%
- Goals for / match
- 1.31
- Goals against / match
- 1.15
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 13
- They have won 14 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 14 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Tampa Bay Rowdies at home only, Detroit City away only.
Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Detroit City head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Tampa Bay Rowdies 3 · draws 3 · Detroit City 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Detroit City | 1-0 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | USL Championship |
| 2025-10-25 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | 1-1 | Detroit City | USL Championship |
| 2025-08-23 | Detroit City | 2-0 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | USL Championship |
| 2024-11-02 | Detroit City | 1-1 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | USL Championship |
| 2024-08-21 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | 2-3 | Detroit City | USL Championship |
| 2024-07-06 | Detroit City | 1-1 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | USL Championship |
| 2023-05-13 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | 5-1 | Detroit City | USL Championship |
| 2023-04-29 | Detroit City | 0-1 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | USL Championship |
| 2022-09-17 | Detroit City | 1-0 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | USL Championship |
| 2022-08-06 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | 1-0 | Detroit City | USL Championship |
Other Group Stage fixtures
- Hartford Athletic v Brooklyn — match page 2026-10-17
- Louisville City vs Indy Eleven — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Miami FC vs Charleston Battery 2026-10-17
- Rhode Island vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- FC Tulsa vs Oakland Roots 2026-10-18
- San Antonio v New Mexico United — match page 2026-10-18
- El Paso Locomotive vs Sacramento Republic — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Orange County SC vs Phoenix Rising 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- Tampa Bay Rowdies, previous: Indy Eleven v Tampa Bay Rowdies analysis
- Detroit City, previous: Detroit City – Rhode Island, 2026-10-10