Louisville City vs Indy Eleven preview
In the fixture between Louisville City and Indy Eleven, the 1X2 probabilities show Louisville City at 57% and Indy Eleven at 19%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 10% chance of occurring. Both teams to score and Over 2.5 goals are both at 56%, indicating an expectation for a competitive match.
Louisville City's recent form is W-D-W-L-D-D, while Indy Eleven has struggled with L-D-L-L-L-W. The expected goals suggest Louisville City at 1.92 and Indy Eleven at 1.02. This could lead to a different outcome if Indy Eleven improves their performance, as their recent struggles may affect their scoring ability.
Louisville City vs Indy Eleven: model vs market
| Source | Louisville City | Draw | Indy Eleven |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 57% | 24% | 19% |
| Market | 55% | 23% | 21% |
| Published | 56% | 24% | 21% |
| Edge | +2% | +1% | -3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.92 vs 1.02.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Louisville City below the model: +2.2 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.72, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Louisville City vs Indy Eleven odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Louisville City, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Louisville City | 1.66 | 1.65 | -0.01 |
| Draw | 3.88 | 3.88 | +0.00 |
| Indy Eleven | 4.20 | 4.24 | +0.04 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Louisville City and Indy Eleven expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.94
- Attack rating (Louisville City / Indy Eleven)
- 1.17 / 0.85
- Defence rating (Louisville City / Indy Eleven)
- 1.02 / 1.10
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Louisville City vs Indy Eleven score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Louisville City goals. Columns: Indy Eleven goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Louisville City vs Indy Eleven goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 56%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Louisville City vs Indy Eleven
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Louisville City | 56% | 1.80 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.24 | |
| Indy Eleven | 21% | 4.82 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56% | 1.78 |
| Under 2.5 | 44% | 2.29 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56% | 1.80 |
| No | 44% | 2.25 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Louisville City or draw) | 79% | 1.26 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or Indy Eleven) | 44% | 2.25 | |
| Handicap -1 | Louisville City win by 2+ | 34% | 2.91 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Louisville City and Indy Eleven recent form
Louisville City
2W 3D 1L
Indy Eleven
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Louisville City at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-3-4
- Win rate
- 46%
- Goals for / match
- 1.38
- Goals against / match
- 1.23
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 13
- They have won 11 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game on the road against 1.4 at home.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Indy Eleven away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-4-8
- Win rate
- 8%
- Goals for / match
- 0.77
- Goals against / match
- 1.54
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 13
- They have won 9 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Louisville City at home only, Indy Eleven away only.
Louisville City vs Indy Eleven head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Louisville City 5 · draws 2 · Indy Eleven 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Indy Eleven | 2-1 | Louisville City | USL Championship |
| 2025-10-04 | Louisville City | 2-0 | Indy Eleven | USL Championship |
| 2025-08-30 | Indy Eleven | 1-3 | Louisville City | USL Championship |
| 2024-10-05 | Indy Eleven | 2-2 | Louisville City | USL Championship |
| 2024-04-06 | Louisville City | 5-3 | Indy Eleven | USL Championship |
| 2023-07-30 | Louisville City | 2-0 | Indy Eleven | USL Championship |
| 2023-05-27 | Indy Eleven | 0-1 | Louisville City | USL Championship |
| 2022-08-31 | Indy Eleven | 2-1 | Louisville City | USL Championship |
| 2022-03-26 | Louisville City | 1-1 | Indy Eleven | USL Championship |
| 2021-10-16 | Indy Eleven | 1-0 | Louisville City | USL Championship |
Other Group Stage fixtures
- Hartford Athletic v Brooklyn — match page 2026-10-17
- Miami FC vs Charleston Battery 2026-10-17
- Tampa Bay Rowdies v Detroit City — match page 2026-10-17
- Rhode Island vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- FC Tulsa vs Oakland Roots 2026-10-18
- San Antonio v New Mexico United — match page 2026-10-18
- El Paso Locomotive vs Sacramento Republic — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Orange County SC vs Phoenix Rising 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- Louisville City, previous: Charleston Battery – Louisville City, 2026-10-10
- Louisville City, next: Sporting JAX – Louisville City, 2026-10-21
- Indy Eleven, previous: Indy Eleven v Tampa Bay Rowdies analysis