Sporting JAX vs Louisville City preview
In the fixture between Sporting JAX and Louisville City, the 1X2 probabilities show Louisville City at 63%, with Sporting JAX at 17% and a draw at 20%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 9% chance. Sporting JAX has struggled recently, losing 5 of their last 6 matches, while Louisville City has a mixed form with 2 wins and 3 draws in their last 5 games.
The model predicts a high likelihood of goals, with 70% for Over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score. However, Sporting JAX's recent poor performance could lead to a lower output than expected, affecting the goal predictions. The expected goals are 1.20 for Sporting JAX and 2.41 for Louisville City, indicating a potential challenge for the home side.
Sporting JAX vs Louisville City: model vs market
| Source | Sporting JAX | Draw | Louisville City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 17% | 20% | 63% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 17% | 20% | 63% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.41 vs 1.20.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Sporting JAX and Louisville City expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.61
- Attack rating (Sporting JAX / Louisville City)
- 0.79 / 1.17
- Defence rating (Sporting JAX / Louisville City)
- 1.75 / 1.02
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Sporting JAX vs Louisville City score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Sporting JAX goals. Columns: Louisville City goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Sporting JAX vs Louisville City goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 64%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Sporting JAX vs Louisville City
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sporting JAX | 17% | 5.96 |
| Draw | 20% | 5.02 | |
| Louisville City | 63% | 1.58 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70% | 1.43 |
| Under 2.5 | 30% | 3.33 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64% | 1.55 |
| No | 36% | 2.81 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Sporting JAX or draw) | 37% | 2.72 |
| 12 (either side) | 80% | 1.25 | |
| X2 (draw or Louisville City) | 83% | 1.20 | |
| Handicap -1 | Louisville City win by 2+ | 42% | 2.36 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Sporting JAX and Louisville City recent form
Sporting JAX
1W 0D 5L
Louisville City
2W 3D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Sporting JAX at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-3-9
- Win rate
- 14%
- Goals for / match
- 1.43
- Goals against / match
- 2.79
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 14
- They have won 3 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 27 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Louisville City away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-4-5
- Win rate
- 36%
- Goals for / match
- 1.93
- Goals against / match
- 1.86
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 14
- They have won 11 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game on the road against 1.4 at home.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Sporting JAX at home only, Louisville City away only.
Sporting JAX vs Louisville City head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Sporting JAX 0 · draws 0 · Louisville City 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-18 | Louisville City | 1-0 | Sporting JAX | USL Championship |
Other Group Stage fixtures
- Brooklyn vs Birmingham Legion 2026-10-21
Before and after this match
- Sporting JAX, previous: Sporting JAX vs Birmingham Legion prediction
- Louisville City, previous: Louisville City – Indy Eleven, 2026-10-17