Brooklyn vs Birmingham Legion preview
In the upcoming match between Brooklyn and Birmingham Legion, the 1X2 probabilities show Brooklyn at 23%, a draw at 22%, and Birmingham Legion at 55%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 9% chance. Both teams to score has a probability of 69%, while Over 2.5 goals stands at 71%.
Brooklyn's recent form is poor, with 4 losses and 2 draws in their last 6 matches. In contrast, Birmingham Legion has shown more resilience, winning 2 of their last 6. The expected goals suggest Brooklyn will score 1.44, while Birmingham Legion is expected to net 2.26. If Brooklyn can improve their form, they might challenge Birmingham Legion's dominance.
Brooklyn vs Birmingham Legion: model vs market
| Source | Brooklyn | Draw | Birmingham Legion |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 23% | 22% | 55% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 23% | 22% | 55% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.26 vs 1.44.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Brooklyn and Birmingham Legion expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.70
- Attack rating (Brooklyn / Birmingham Legion)
- 0.77 / 1.18
- Defence rating (Brooklyn / Birmingham Legion)
- 1.63 / 1.26
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Brooklyn vs Birmingham Legion score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Brooklyn goals. Columns: Birmingham Legion goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Brooklyn vs Birmingham Legion goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 69%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Brooklyn vs Birmingham Legion
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Brooklyn | 23% | 4.31 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.63 | |
| Birmingham Legion | 55% | 1.81 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71% | 1.40 |
| Under 2.5 | 29% | 3.50 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69% | 1.45 |
| No | 31% | 3.24 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Brooklyn or draw) | 45% | 2.23 |
| 12 (either side) | 78% | 1.28 | |
| X2 (draw or Birmingham Legion) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| Handicap -1 | Birmingham Legion win by 2+ | 35% | 2.87 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Brooklyn and Birmingham Legion recent form
Brooklyn
0W 2D 4L
Birmingham Legion
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Brooklyn at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-3-8
- Win rate
- 21%
- Goals for / match
- 1.07
- Goals against / match
- 1.36
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 14
- They have won 4 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 27 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Birmingham Legion away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-4-7
- Win rate
- 15%
- Goals for / match
- 1.31
- Goals against / match
- 1.92
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 13
- They have won 5 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 27 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 5 penalties (60%).
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Brooklyn at home only, Birmingham Legion away only.
Brooklyn vs Birmingham Legion head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Brooklyn 0 · draws 0 · Birmingham Legion 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-23 | Birmingham Legion | 4-0 | Brooklyn | USL Championship |
Other Group Stage fixtures
- Birmingham Legion vs Loudoun United 2026-10-18
- Sporting JAX v Louisville City — match page 2026-10-21
Before and after this match
- Brooklyn, previous: Hartford Athletic vs Brooklyn prediction
- Birmingham Legion, previous: Birmingham Legion vs Loudoun United: odds and pick