Hartford Athletic vs Brooklyn preview
Hartford Athletic faces Brooklyn with a 75% chance of winning, while Brooklyn has just a 9% chance. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, based on an expected goals figure of 2.65 for Hartford Athletic and 0.86 for Brooklyn. Given Hartford's recent form of L-D-D-W-W-D, they appear to be in better shape compared to Brooklyn's L-L-L-D-L-D.
While the model suggests a strong likelihood for Over 2.5 goals at 68% and both teams to score at 54%, these outcomes could be impacted by Brooklyn's struggles to find the net. The confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.
Hartford Athletic vs Brooklyn: model vs market
| Source | Hartford Athletic | Draw | Brooklyn |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 75% | 16% | 9% |
| Market | 66% | 19% | 15% |
| Published | 68% | 19% | 13% |
| Edge | +9% | -3% | -6% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.62 vs 0.85.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Hartford Athletic below the model: +8.8 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.45, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Hartford Athletic vs Brooklyn odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Hartford Athletic, 10 snapshots since 2026-10-13.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hartford Athletic | 1.31 | 1.38 | +0.06 |
| Draw | 5.10 | 4.67 | -0.42 |
| Brooklyn | 7.04 | 6.05 | -0.99 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Hartford Athletic and Brooklyn expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.46
- Attack rating (Hartford Athletic / Brooklyn)
- 1.08 / 0.77
- Defence rating (Hartford Athletic / Brooklyn)
- 0.94 / 1.63
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Hartford Athletic vs Brooklyn score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Hartford Athletic goals. Columns: Brooklyn goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Hartford Athletic vs Brooklyn goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 54%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Hartford Athletic vs Brooklyn
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Hartford Athletic | 68% | 1.47 |
| Draw | 19% | 5.38 | |
| Brooklyn | 13% | 7.42 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67% | 1.49 |
| Under 2.5 | 33% | 3.05 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54% | 1.86 |
| No | 46% | 2.16 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Hartford Athletic or draw) | 87% | 1.16 |
| 12 (either side) | 81% | 1.23 | |
| X2 (draw or Brooklyn) | 32% | 3.12 | |
| Handicap -1 | Hartford Athletic win by 2+ | 54% | 1.86 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Hartford Athletic and Brooklyn recent form
Hartford Athletic
2W 3D 1L
Brooklyn
0W 2D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Hartford Athletic at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-7-1
- Win rate
- 38%
- Goals for / match
- 1.46
- Goals against / match
- 1.23
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 13
- They have won 9 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Brooklyn away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-3-9
- Win rate
- 8%
- Goals for / match
- 0.92
- Goals against / match
- 2.77
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 13
- They have won 4 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 27 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Hartford Athletic at home only, Brooklyn away only.
Hartford Athletic vs Brooklyn head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Hartford Athletic 2 · draws 0 · Brooklyn 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | Brooklyn | 0-2 | Hartford Athletic | USL League One Cup |
| 2026-03-21 | Brooklyn | 1-2 | Hartford Athletic | USL Championship |
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Before and after this match
- Hartford Athletic, previous: Hartford Athletic – Charleston Battery, 2026-10-14
- Brooklyn, previous: Brooklyn vs Rhode Island prediction
- Brooklyn, next: Brooklyn v Birmingham Legion analysis