Indy Eleven vs Tampa Bay Rowdies: model vs market
| Source | Indy Eleven | Draw | Tampa Bay Rowdies |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 29% | 30% | 41% |
| Market | 29% | 25% | 45% |
| Published | 29% | 27% | 44% |
| Edge | 0% | +5% | -4% |
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.06, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
Indy Eleven vs Tampa Bay Rowdies odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Tampa Bay Rowdies, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-05.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Indy Eleven | 3.10 | 3.10 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.60 | 3.55 | -0.05 |
| Tampa Bay Rowdies | 2.02 | 1.99 | -0.03 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Indy Eleven and Tampa Bay Rowdies expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.40
- Attack rating (Indy Eleven / Tampa Bay Rowdies)
- 0.83 / 1.14
- Defence rating (Indy Eleven / Tampa Bay Rowdies)
- 0.99 / 0.86
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Indy Eleven vs Tampa Bay Rowdies score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Indy Eleven goals. Columns: Tampa Bay Rowdies goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Indy Eleven vs Tampa Bay Rowdies goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 50%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Indy Eleven vs Tampa Bay Rowdies
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Indy Eleven | 29% | 3.44 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.76 | |
| Tampa Bay Rowdies | 44% | 2.26 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 43% | 2.33 |
| Under 2.5 | 57% | 1.75 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50% | 2.02 |
| No | 50% | 1.98 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Indy Eleven or draw) | 56% | 1.80 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Tampa Bay Rowdies) | 71% | 1.41 | |
| Handicap -1 | Tampa Bay Rowdies win by 2+ | 19% | 5.13 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Indy Eleven and Tampa Bay Rowdies recent form
Indy Eleven
1W 2D 3L
Tampa Bay Rowdies
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Indy Eleven at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-3-3
- Win rate
- 57%
- Goals for / match
- 1.64
- Goals against / match
- 0.93
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 14
- They have won 9 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Tampa Bay Rowdies away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-5-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.21
- Goals against / match
- 0.64
- Clean sheets
- 8 of 14
- They have won 15 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 14 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Indy Eleven at home only, Tampa Bay Rowdies away only.
Indy Eleven vs Tampa Bay Rowdies head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Indy Eleven 0 · draws 0 · Tampa Bay Rowdies 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | 1-0 | Indy Eleven | USL Championship |
| 2025-08-02 | Indy Eleven | 1-3 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | USL Championship |
| 2025-06-25 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | 3-1 | Indy Eleven | USL Championship |
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