New Mexico United vs Monterey Bay: model vs market
| Source | New Mexico United | Draw | Monterey Bay |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 63% | 21% | 16% |
| Market | 56% | 22% | 21% |
| Published | 58% | 22% | 20% |
| Edge | +6% | -1% | -5% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.27 vs 1.11.
- The market prices New Mexico United below the model: +6.2 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.65, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
New Mexico United vs Monterey Bay odds movement
Median bookmaker price on New Mexico United, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-05.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| New Mexico United | 1.67 | 1.60 | -0.07 |
| Draw | 4.10 | 4.05 | -0.05 |
| Monterey Bay | 4.20 | 4.25 | +0.05 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
New Mexico United and Monterey Bay expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.37
- Attack rating (New Mexico United / Monterey Bay)
- 1.20 / 0.90
- Defence rating (New Mexico United / Monterey Bay)
- 1.04 / 1.26
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
New Mexico United vs Monterey Bay score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: New Mexico United goals. Columns: Monterey Bay goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
New Mexico United vs Monterey Bay goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 61%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for New Mexico United vs Monterey Bay
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | New Mexico United | 58% | 1.72 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.56 | |
| Monterey Bay | 20% | 4.99 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66% | 1.53 |
| Under 2.5 | 34% | 2.90 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61% | 1.64 |
| No | 39% | 2.55 | |
| Double chance | 1X (New Mexico United or draw) | 80% | 1.25 |
| 12 (either side) | 78% | 1.28 | |
| X2 (draw or Monterey Bay) | 42% | 2.38 | |
| Handicap -1 | New Mexico United win by 2+ | 41% | 2.44 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
New Mexico United and Monterey Bay recent form
New Mexico United
1W 3D 2L
Monterey Bay
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
New Mexico United at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-3-3
- Win rate
- 57%
- Goals for / match
- 1.64
- Goals against / match
- 1.21
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 14
- They have won 12 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Monterey Bay away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-3-10
- Win rate
- 7%
- Goals for / match
- 0.86
- Goals against / match
- 1.93
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 14
- They have won 4 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: New Mexico United at home only, Monterey Bay away only.
New Mexico United vs Monterey Bay head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: New Mexico United 2 · draws 1 · Monterey Bay 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-09 | Monterey Bay | 2-5 | New Mexico United | USL Championship |
| 2025-09-21 | Monterey Bay | 1-1 | New Mexico United | USL Championship |
| 2025-04-24 | New Mexico United | 1-0 | Monterey Bay | USL Championship |
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