Sacramento Republic vs Colorado Springs: model vs market
| Source | Sacramento Republic | Draw | Colorado Springs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49% | 30% | 21% |
| Market | 50% | 27% | 23% |
| Published | 49% | 28% | 23% |
| Edge | 0% | +3% | -2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.41 vs 0.84.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.88, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
Sacramento Republic vs Colorado Springs odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Sacramento Republic, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-06.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sacramento Republic | 1.83 | 1.83 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.36 | 3.36 | +0.00 |
| Colorado Springs | 3.86 | 3.86 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Sacramento Republic and Colorado Springs expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.25
- Attack rating (Sacramento Republic / Colorado Springs)
- 1.13 / 0.91
- Defence rating (Sacramento Republic / Colorado Springs)
- 0.79 / 0.84
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Sacramento Republic vs Colorado Springs score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Sacramento Republic goals. Columns: Colorado Springs goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Sacramento Republic vs Colorado Springs goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 44%
- No goals (0–0)
- 12%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Sacramento Republic vs Colorado Springs
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sacramento Republic | 49% | 2.02 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.62 | |
| Colorado Springs | 23% | 4.37 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 39% | 2.55 |
| Under 2.5 | 61% | 1.64 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44% | 2.26 |
| No | 56% | 1.79 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Sacramento Republic or draw) | 77% | 1.30 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Colorado Springs) | 51% | 1.98 | |
| Handicap -1 | Sacramento Republic win by 2+ | 25% | 4.01 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Sacramento Republic and Colorado Springs recent form
Sacramento Republic
3W 3D 0L
Colorado Springs
3W 3D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Sacramento Republic at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-3-2
- Win rate
- 62%
- Goals for / match
- 1.77
- Goals against / match
- 0.85
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 13
- They have won 11 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 26 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
Colorado Springs away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-3-6
- Win rate
- 31%
- Goals for / match
- 1.31
- Goals against / match
- 1.69
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 13
- They have won 11 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 7 penalties (86%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Sacramento Republic at home only, Colorado Springs away only.
Sacramento Republic vs Colorado Springs head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Sacramento Republic 2 · draws 1 · Colorado Springs 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-14 | Colorado Springs | 0-1 | Sacramento Republic | USL Championship |
| 2025-09-21 | Colorado Springs | 0-2 | Sacramento Republic | USL Championship |
| 2025-03-23 | Sacramento Republic | 2-2 | Colorado Springs | USL Championship |
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