Lexington vs FC Tulsa preview
Lexington hosts FC Tulsa with a 54% probability of winning according to the model 1X2. The expected goals suggest Lexington could score around 1.69, while FC Tulsa is expected to net about 0.95. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Lexington, with a 49% chance of Over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance for both teams to score.
However, Lexington's recent form shows two losses in their last six matches, which could impact their performance. FC Tulsa has not lost to Lexington in their last three encounters, with two wins and one draw. This historical edge and recent form could lead to unexpected results, making the match more competitive than the probabilities suggest.
Lexington vs FC Tulsa: model vs market
| Source | Lexington | Draw | FC Tulsa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 54% | 26% | 20% |
| Market | 54% | 25% | 21% |
| Published | 54% | 26% | 21% |
| Edge | 0% | +1% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.69 vs 0.95.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.70, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
Lexington vs FC Tulsa odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Lexington, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-05.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lexington | 1.75 | 1.69 | -0.06 |
| Draw | 3.60 | 3.60 | +0.00 |
| FC Tulsa | 4.00 | 4.33 | +0.33 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Lexington and FC Tulsa expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.65
- Attack rating (Lexington / FC Tulsa)
- 1.62 / 0.88
- Defence rating (Lexington / FC Tulsa)
- 0.92 / 0.70
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Lexington vs FC Tulsa score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Lexington goals. Columns: FC Tulsa goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Lexington vs FC Tulsa goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 51%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Lexington vs FC Tulsa
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lexington | 54% | 1.86 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.92 | |
| FC Tulsa | 21% | 4.82 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49% | 2.03 |
| Under 2.5 | 51% | 1.97 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51% | 1.95 |
| No | 49% | 2.05 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Lexington or draw) | 79% | 1.26 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or FC Tulsa) | 46% | 2.16 | |
| Handicap -1 | Lexington win by 2+ | 30% | 3.32 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Lexington and FC Tulsa recent form
Lexington
4W 0D 2L
FC Tulsa
1W 4D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Lexington at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 9-1-4
- Win rate
- 64%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 7 of 14
- They have won 12 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
FC Tulsa away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-5-4
- Win rate
- 31%
- Goals for / match
- 1.38
- Goals against / match
- 1.31
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 13
- They have won 11 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Lexington at home only, FC Tulsa away only.
Lexington vs FC Tulsa head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Lexington 0 · draws 1 · FC Tulsa 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-26 | FC Tulsa | 0-0 | Lexington | USL Championship |
| 2025-10-05 | FC Tulsa | 3-0 | Lexington | USL Championship |
| 2025-05-18 | Lexington | 0-2 | FC Tulsa | USL Championship |
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