Loudoun United vs Brooklyn: model vs market
| Source | Loudoun United | Draw | Brooklyn |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 64% | 22% | 15% |
| Market | 58% | 22% | 20% |
| Published | 59% | 22% | 19% |
| Edge | +1% | 0% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.11 vs 0.92.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Loudoun United vs Brooklyn odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Loudoun United, 10 snapshots since 2026-10-20.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Loudoun United | 1.66 | 1.57 | -0.09 |
| Draw | 3.90 | 4.10 | +0.20 |
| Brooklyn | 4.12 | 4.55 | +0.42 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Loudoun United and Brooklyn expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.03
- Attack rating (Loudoun United / Brooklyn)
- 0.88 / 0.90
- Defence rating (Loudoun United / Brooklyn)
- 0.86 / 1.61
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Loudoun United vs Brooklyn score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Loudoun United goals. Columns: Brooklyn goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Loudoun United vs Brooklyn goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 54%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Loudoun United vs Brooklyn
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Loudoun United | 59% | 1.69 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.53 | |
| Brooklyn | 19% | 5.37 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58% | 1.71 |
| Under 2.5 | 42% | 2.40 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54% | 1.86 |
| No | 46% | 2.17 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Loudoun United or draw) | 81% | 1.23 |
| 12 (either side) | 78% | 1.28 | |
| X2 (draw or Brooklyn) | 41% | 2.46 | |
| Handicap -1 | Loudoun United win by 2+ | 41% | 2.46 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Loudoun United and Brooklyn recent form
Loudoun United
2W 2D 2L
Brooklyn
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Loudoun United at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-9-4
- Win rate
- 7%
- Goals for / match
- 1.43
- Goals against / match
- 1.71
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 14
- They have won 5 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 29 matches.
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Brooklyn away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-3-9
- Win rate
- 14%
- Goals for / match
- 1.07
- Goals against / match
- 2.71
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 14
- They have won 5 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 29 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Loudoun United at home only, Brooklyn away only.
Loudoun United vs Brooklyn head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Loudoun United 1 · draws 0 · Brooklyn 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | Brooklyn | 0-1 | Loudoun United | USL Championship |
| 2026-02-21 | Brooklyn | 1-0 | Loudoun United | Friendlies Clubs |
Before and after this match
- Loudoun United, previous: Birmingham Legion vs Loudoun United: odds and pick
- Brooklyn, previous: Brooklyn v Birmingham Legion analysis