Louisville City vs Detroit City: model vs market
| Source | Louisville City | Draw | Detroit City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 38% | 36% | 26% |
| Market | 46% | 28% | 27% |
| Published | 44% | 30% | 27% |
| Edge | -2% | +2% | 0% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Louisville City vs Detroit City odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Louisville City, 10 snapshots since 2026-10-20.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Louisville City | 1.75 | 2.00 | +0.25 |
| Draw | 3.50 | 3.30 | -0.20 |
| Detroit City | 4.00 | 3.40 | -0.60 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Louisville City and Detroit City expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.77
- Attack rating (Louisville City / Detroit City)
- 1.33 / 0.72
- Defence rating (Louisville City / Detroit City)
- 0.91 / 0.50
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Louisville City vs Detroit City score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Louisville City goals. Columns: Detroit City goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Louisville City vs Detroit City goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 35%
- No goals (0–0)
- 18%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Louisville City vs Detroit City
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Louisville City | 44% | 2.29 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.38 | |
| Detroit City | 27% | 3.75 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 26% | 3.81 |
| Under 2.5 | 74% | 1.36 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 35% | 2.82 |
| No | 65% | 1.55 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Louisville City or draw) | 73% | 1.36 |
| 12 (either side) | 70% | 1.42 | |
| X2 (draw or Detroit City) | 56% | 1.78 | |
| Handicap -1 | Louisville City win by 2+ | 15% | 6.61 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Louisville City and Detroit City recent form
Louisville City
4W 1D 1L
Detroit City
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Louisville City at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-3-4
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.57
- Goals against / match
- 1.21
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 14
- They have won 13 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Detroit City away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-4-6
- Win rate
- 29%
- Goals for / match
- 1.21
- Goals against / match
- 1.14
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 14
- They have won 14 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 14 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Louisville City at home only, Detroit City away only.
Louisville City vs Detroit City head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Louisville City 4 · draws 2 · Detroit City 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Louisville City | 0-0 | Detroit City | USL Championship |
| 2026-06-20 | Detroit City | 0-0 | Louisville City | USL League One Cup |
| 2026-05-02 | Detroit City | 2-1 | Louisville City | USL Championship |
| 2025-11-01 | Louisville City | 0-1 | Detroit City | USL Championship |
| 2025-09-27 | Detroit City | 0-1 | Louisville City | USL Championship |
| 2025-03-29 | Louisville City | 2-0 | Detroit City | USL Championship |
| 2024-09-22 | Detroit City | 2-1 | Louisville City | USL Championship |
| 2024-05-29 | Louisville City | 5-1 | Detroit City | USL Championship |
| 2023-10-29 | Louisville City | 4-0 | Detroit City | USL Championship |
| 2023-07-19 | Detroit City | 2-0 | Louisville City | USL Championship |
Before and after this match
- Louisville City, previous: Sporting JAX – Louisville City, 2026-10-21
- Detroit City, previous: Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Detroit City: odds and pick