Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Sporting JAX: model vs market
| Source | Tampa Bay Rowdies | Draw | Sporting JAX |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 83% | 12% | 5% |
| Market | 83% | 11% | 6% |
| Published | 83% | 11% | 6% |
| Edge | 0% | 0% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.98 vs 0.66.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Sporting JAX odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Tampa Bay Rowdies, 10 snapshots since 2026-10-20.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Rowdies | 1.16 | 1.11 | -0.05 |
| Draw | 6.50 | 8.50 | +2.00 |
| Sporting JAX | 11.22 | 15.00 | +3.78 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Tampa Bay Rowdies and Sporting JAX expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.65
- Attack rating (Tampa Bay Rowdies / Sporting JAX)
- 1.21 / 0.70
- Defence rating (Tampa Bay Rowdies / Sporting JAX)
- 0.80 / 1.66
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Sporting JAX score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Tampa Bay Rowdies goals. Columns: Sporting JAX goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Sporting JAX goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 47%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Sporting JAX
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | 83% | 1.20 |
| Draw | 11% | 8.97 | |
| Sporting JAX | 6% | 17.12 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70% | 1.42 |
| Under 2.5 | 30% | 3.39 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47% | 2.14 |
| No | 53% | 1.87 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Tampa Bay Rowdies or draw) | 94% | 1.06 |
| 12 (either side) | 89% | 1.13 | |
| X2 (draw or Sporting JAX) | 17% | 5.89 | |
| Handicap -1 | Tampa Bay Rowdies win by 2+ | 65% | 1.54 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Tampa Bay Rowdies and Sporting JAX recent form
Tampa Bay Rowdies
3W 1D 2L
Sporting JAX
0W 0D 6L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Tampa Bay Rowdies at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 9-2-3
- Win rate
- 64%
- Goals for / match
- 2.14
- Goals against / match
- 1.14
- Clean sheets
- 7 of 14
- They have won 17 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.1 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 15 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sporting JAX away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-11
- Win rate
- 7%
- Goals for / match
- 0.86
- Goals against / match
- 2.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 14
- They have won 3 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 12 of 29 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Tampa Bay Rowdies at home only, Sporting JAX away only.
Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Sporting JAX head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Tampa Bay Rowdies 3 · draws 0 · Sporting JAX 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-06 | Sporting JAX | 0-2 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | USL League One Cup |
| 2026-04-04 | Sporting JAX | 0-1 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | USL Championship |
| 2026-02-28 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | 1-0 | Sporting JAX | Friendlies Clubs |
Before and after this match
- Tampa Bay Rowdies, previous: Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Detroit City: odds and pick
- Sporting JAX, previous: Sporting JAX – Louisville City, 2026-10-21