Atletico DE Rafaela vs Quilmes preview
Atletico DE Rafaela faces Quilmes with a 43% probability of winning compared to Quilmes' 26%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which aligns with Atletico DE Rafaela's expected goals of 1.27 against Quilmes' 0.93. Both teams to score has a probability of 45%, indicating a chance that at least one team may struggle to find the net.
However, recent form shows Atletico DE Rafaela with a mixed record of L-L-W-L-L-W, while Quilmes has a D-W-L-W-L-L streak. This inconsistency could affect the outcome, particularly if either team improves their performance. The confidence grade is C, suggesting uncertainty in the prediction.
Atletico DE Rafaela vs Quilmes: model vs market
| Source | Atletico DE Rafaela | Draw | Quilmes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43% | 31% | 26% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 43% | 31% | 26% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.27 vs 0.93.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Atletico DE Rafaela and Quilmes expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.20
- Attack rating (Atletico DE Rafaela / Quilmes)
- 1.12 / 0.96
- Defence rating (Atletico DE Rafaela / Quilmes)
- 1.37 / 0.98
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Atletico DE Rafaela vs Quilmes score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Atletico DE Rafaela goals. Columns: Quilmes goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Atletico DE Rafaela vs Quilmes goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 45%
- No goals (0–0)
- 12%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Atletico DE Rafaela vs Quilmes
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atletico DE Rafaela | 43% | 2.33 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.20 | |
| Quilmes | 26% | 3.86 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 38% | 2.65 |
| Under 2.5 | 62% | 1.60 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45% | 2.23 |
| No | 55% | 1.81 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Atletico DE Rafaela or draw) | 74% | 1.35 |
| 12 (either side) | 69% | 1.45 | |
| X2 (draw or Quilmes) | 57% | 1.75 | |
| Handicap -1 | Atletico DE Rafaela win by 2+ | 20% | 5.00 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Atletico DE Rafaela and Quilmes recent form
Atletico DE Rafaela
2W 0D 4L
Quilmes
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Atletico DE Rafaela at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 10-3-3
- Win rate
- 62%
- Goals for / match
- 1.31
- Goals against / match
- 0.75
- Clean sheets
- 10 of 16
- They have won 11 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
- They have kept 15 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 13 of 32 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Quilmes away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-5-10
- Win rate
- 6%
- Goals for / match
- 0.69
- Goals against / match
- 1.31
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 16
- They have won 10 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 14 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 17 of 32 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Atletico DE Rafaela at home only, Quilmes away only.
Atletico DE Rafaela vs Quilmes head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Atletico DE Rafaela 0 · draws 0 · Quilmes 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-31 | Quilmes | 2-0 | Atletico DE Rafaela | Primera Nacional |
Other Matchday 34 fixtures
Before and after this match
- Atletico DE Rafaela, previous: Midland – Atletico DE Rafaela, 2026-10-10
- Quilmes, previous: Quilmes vs Agropecuario prediction