Midland vs Atletico DE Rafaela: model vs market
| Source | Midland | Draw | Atletico DE Rafaela |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 58% | 26% | 16% |
| Market | 50% | 31% | 20% |
| Published | 52% | 29% | 19% |
| Edge | +8% | -5% | -4% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.70 vs 0.80.
- The market prices Midland below the model: +8.2 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.90, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
Midland vs Atletico DE Rafaela odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Midland, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-05.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Midland | 1.75 | 1.85 | +0.10 |
| Draw | 3.15 | 3.00 | -0.15 |
| Atletico DE Rafaela | 4.84 | 4.66 | -0.18 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Midland and Atletico DE Rafaela expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.50
- Attack rating (Midland / Atletico DE Rafaela)
- 1.09 / 1.12
- Defence rating (Midland / Atletico DE Rafaela)
- 1.00 / 1.37
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Midland vs Atletico DE Rafaela score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Midland goals. Columns: Atletico DE Rafaela goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Midland vs Atletico DE Rafaela goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 46%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Midland vs Atletico DE Rafaela
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Midland | 52% | 1.93 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.39 | |
| Atletico DE Rafaela | 19% | 5.31 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46% | 2.19 |
| Under 2.5 | 54% | 1.84 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46% | 2.17 |
| No | 54% | 1.86 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Midland or draw) | 81% | 1.23 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.42 | |
| X2 (draw or Atletico DE Rafaela) | 48% | 2.07 | |
| Handicap -1 | Midland win by 2+ | 33% | 3.02 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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| 4 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Midland and Atletico DE Rafaela recent form
Midland
2W 1D 3L
Atletico DE Rafaela
2W 0D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Midland at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 10-3-3
- Win rate
- 62%
- Goals for / match
- 1.19
- Goals against / match
- 0.44
- Clean sheets
- 10 of 16
- They have won 13 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Atletico DE Rafaela away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-6-9
- Win rate
- 6%
- Goals for / match
- 0.38
- Goals against / match
- 1.12
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 16
- They have won 11 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
- They have kept 15 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 13 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Midland at home only, Atletico DE Rafaela away only.
Midland vs Atletico DE Rafaela head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Midland 0 · draws 0 · Atletico DE Rafaela 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-23 | Atletico DE Rafaela | 1-0 | Midland | Primera Nacional |
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