Updated

Primera Nacional · Matchday 33

Midland vs Atletico DE Rafaela

· Raul Roberto Sabureau Stadium, Buenos Aires

Full time4 – 0

Alin prediction was Midland to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 0

13% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
MidlandDrawAtletico DE Rafaela

Midland vs Atletico DE Rafaela: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceMidlandDrawAtletico DE Rafaela
Model58%26%16%
Market52%31%18%
Published53%29%17%
Edge+2%-1%0%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.70 vs 0.80.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Midland vs Atletico DE Rafaela odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Midland, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-05.

Opened 1.75Now 1.78 +0.03
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Midland1.751.78+0.03
Draw3.153.00-0.15
Atletico DE Rafaela4.845.17+0.33

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Midland and Atletico DE Rafaela expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.70Midland
0.80Atletico DE Rafaela
Total expected goals
2.50
Attack rating (Midland / Atletico DE Rafaela)
1.09 / 1.12
Defence rating (Midland / Atletico DE Rafaela)
1.00 / 1.37

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Midland vs Atletico DE Rafaela score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 9.3% 5.4% 2.6% 0.7% 0.2% 1 12.8% 12.3% 4.5% 1.2% 0.3% 2 11.9% 9.5% 3.8% 1.0% 0.2% 3 6.7% 5.4% 2.2% 0.6% 0.1% 4+ 4.2% 3.4% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1%

Rows: Midland goals. Columns: Atletico DE Rafaela goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Midland vs Atletico DE Rafaela goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 91%
Over 1.5 72%
Over 2.5 46%
Over 3.5 24%
Both teams to score
46%
No goals (0–0)
9%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Midland vs Atletico DE Rafaela

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Midland53%1.88
Draw29%3.39
Atletico DE Rafaela17%5.76
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.546%2.19
Under 2.554%1.84
Both teams to scoreYes46%2.17
No54%1.86
Double chance1X (Midland or draw)83%1.21
12 (either side)71%1.42
X2 (draw or Atletico DE Rafaela)47%2.14
Handicap -1Midland win by 2+33%3.02
Push (exactly one goal)25%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Midland and Atletico DE Rafaela recent form

Midland 2W 1D 3L
Atletico DE Rafaela 2W 0D 4L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Midland at home

Record (W-D-L)
10-3-3
Win rate
62%
Goals for / match
1.19
Goals against / match
0.44
Clean sheets
10 of 16
  • They have won 13 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They have kept 14 clean sheets in 32 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 9 of 32 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Atletico DE Rafaela away

Record (W-D-L)
1-6-9
Win rate
6%
Goals for / match
0.38
Goals against / match
1.12
Clean sheets
5 of 16
  • They have won 11 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
  • They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
  • They have kept 15 clean sheets in 32 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 13 of 32 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Midland at home only, Atletico DE Rafaela away only.

Midland vs Atletico DE Rafaela head-to-head

Last 1 meetings: Midland 0 · draws 0 · Atletico DE Rafaela 1.

MidlandDrawsAtletico DE Rafaela
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-23Atletico DE Rafaela1-0MidlandPrimera Nacional

Other Matchday 33 fixtures

Before and after this match