Defensores De Belgrano vs Acassuso: model vs market
| Source | Defensores De Belgrano | Draw | Acassuso |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53% | 32% | 15% |
| Market | 54% | 28% | 18% |
| Published | 54% | 29% | 17% |
| Edge | -1% | +4% | -2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.27 vs 0.56.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.72, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
Defensores De Belgrano vs Acassuso odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Defensores De Belgrano, 3 snapshots since 2026-10-05.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Defensores De Belgrano | 1.70 | 1.70 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.25 | 3.25 | +0.00 |
| Acassuso | 5.20 | 5.20 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Defensores De Belgrano and Acassuso expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.82
- Attack rating (Defensores De Belgrano / Acassuso)
- 1.06 / 0.76
- Defence rating (Defensores De Belgrano / Acassuso)
- 1.03 / 1.04
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Defensores De Belgrano vs Acassuso score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Defensores De Belgrano goals. Columns: Acassuso goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Defensores De Belgrano vs Acassuso goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 32%
- No goals (0–0)
- 17%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Defensores De Belgrano vs Acassuso
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Defensores De Belgrano | 54% | 1.86 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.42 | |
| Acassuso | 17% | 5.86 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 28% | 3.63 |
| Under 2.5 | 72% | 1.38 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 32% | 3.14 |
| No | 68% | 1.47 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Defensores De Belgrano or draw) | 83% | 1.21 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.41 | |
| X2 (draw or Acassuso) | 46% | 2.16 | |
| Handicap -1 | Defensores De Belgrano win by 2+ | 25% | 3.94 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 27% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Defensores De Belgrano and Acassuso recent form
Defensores De Belgrano
3W 2D 1L
Acassuso
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Defensores De Belgrano at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-8-4
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 0.81
- Goals against / match
- 0.88
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 16
- They have won 8 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 14 of 31 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Acassuso away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-5-9
- Win rate
- 12%
- Goals for / match
- 0.56
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 16
- They have won 7 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 17 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Defensores De Belgrano at home only, Acassuso away only.
Defensores De Belgrano vs Acassuso head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Defensores De Belgrano 0 · draws 0 · Acassuso 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | Acassuso | 1-0 | Defensores De Belgrano | Primera Nacional |
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