Updated

Primera Nacional · Matchday 33

Defensores De Belgrano vs Acassuso

· Estadio Juan Pasquale, Belgrano

Full time0 – 3

Alin prediction was Defensores De Belgrano to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 0

19% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Defensores De BelgranoDrawAcassuso

Defensores De Belgrano vs Acassuso: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceDefensores De BelgranoDrawAcassuso
Model53%32%15%
Market56%27%17%
Published56%28%16%
Edge-1%+1%0%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.27 vs 0.56.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Defensores De Belgrano vs Acassuso odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Defensores De Belgrano, 13 snapshots since 2026-10-05.

Opened 1.70Now 1.62 -0.08
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Defensores De Belgrano1.701.62-0.08
Draw3.253.40+0.15
Acassuso5.205.49+0.29

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Defensores De Belgrano and Acassuso expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.27Defensores De Belgrano
0.56Acassuso
Total expected goals
1.82
Attack rating (Defensores De Belgrano / Acassuso)
1.06 / 0.76
Defence rating (Defensores De Belgrano / Acassuso)
1.03 / 1.04

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Defensores De Belgrano vs Acassuso score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 17.3% 7.8% 2.5% 0.5% 0.1% 1 19.3% 12.5% 3.2% 0.6% 0.1% 2 13.0% 7.2% 2.0% 0.4% 0.1% 3 5.5% 3.0% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 4+ 2.3% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: Defensores De Belgrano goals. Columns: Acassuso goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Defensores De Belgrano vs Acassuso goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 83%
Over 1.5 56%
Over 2.5 28%
Over 3.5 11%
Both teams to score
32%
No goals (0–0)
17%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Defensores De Belgrano vs Acassuso

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Defensores De Belgrano56%1.80
Draw28%3.55
Acassuso16%6.14
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.528%3.63
Under 2.572%1.38
Both teams to scoreYes32%3.15
No68%1.47
Double chance1X (Defensores De Belgrano or draw)84%1.19
12 (either side)72%1.39
X2 (draw or Acassuso)44%2.25
Handicap -1Defensores De Belgrano win by 2+25%3.94
Push (exactly one goal)27%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Defensores De Belgrano and Acassuso recent form

Defensores De Belgrano 3W 2D 1L
Acassuso 2W 1D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Defensores De Belgrano at home

Record (W-D-L)
4-8-4
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
0.81
Goals against / match
0.88
Clean sheets
5 of 16
  • They have won 8 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
  • They have kept 12 clean sheets in 32 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 14 of 32 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
  • 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Acassuso away

Record (W-D-L)
2-5-9
Win rate
12%
Goals for / match
0.56
Goals against / match
1.25
Clean sheets
5 of 16
  • They have won 7 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
  • They have kept 10 clean sheets in 32 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 18 of 32 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).

League matches this season before kick-off: Defensores De Belgrano at home only, Acassuso away only.

Defensores De Belgrano vs Acassuso head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Defensores De Belgrano 3 · draws 5 · Acassuso 2.

Defensores De BelgranoDrawsAcassuso
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-24Acassuso1-0Defensores De BelgranoPrimera Nacional
2018-02-08Acassuso0-0Defensores De BelgranoPrimera B Metropolitana
2017-09-13Defensores De Belgrano2-1AcassusoPrimera B Metropolitana
2017-06-04Acassuso0-0Defensores De BelgranoPrimera B Metropolitana
2016-11-19Defensores De Belgrano1-0AcassusoPrimera B Metropolitana
2015-07-08Defensores De Belgrano0-0AcassusoPrimera B Metropolitana
2015-02-23Acassuso1-3Defensores De BelgranoPrimera B Metropolitana
2014-02-16Defensores De Belgrano0-0AcassusoPrimera B Metropolitana
2013-08-19Acassuso2-2Defensores De BelgranoPrimera B Metropolitana
2013-02-24Acassuso2-0Defensores De BelgranoPrimera B Metropolitana

Other Matchday 33 fixtures

Before and after this match