Almirante Brown vs San Miguel: model vs market
| Source | Almirante Brown | Draw | San Miguel |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 62% | 27% | 12% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 62% | 27% | 12% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.58 vs 0.55.
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Almirante Brown and San Miguel expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.13
- Attack rating (Almirante Brown / San Miguel)
- 0.96 / 0.83
- Defence rating (Almirante Brown / San Miguel)
- 0.93 / 1.43
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Almirante Brown vs San Miguel score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Almirante Brown goals. Columns: San Miguel goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Almirante Brown vs San Miguel goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 35%
- No goals (0–0)
- 13%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Almirante Brown vs San Miguel
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Almirante Brown | 62% | 1.62 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.74 | |
| San Miguel | 12% | 8.63 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 36% | 2.79 |
| Under 2.5 | 64% | 1.56 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 35% | 2.89 |
| No | 65% | 1.53 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Almirante Brown or draw) | 88% | 1.13 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or San Miguel) | 38% | 2.61 | |
| Handicap -1 | Almirante Brown win by 2+ | 35% | 2.90 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 27% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Almirante Brown and San Miguel recent form
Almirante Brown
1W 2D 3L
San Miguel
0W 2D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Almirante Brown at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 9-4-3
- Win rate
- 56%
- Goals for / match
- 0.94
- Goals against / match
- 0.44
- Clean sheets
- 10 of 16
- They have won 12 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 18 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 14 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
San Miguel away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-8-7
- Win rate
- 6%
- Goals for / match
- 0.69
- Goals against / match
- 1.44
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 16
- They have won 6 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 31 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Almirante Brown at home only, San Miguel away only.
Almirante Brown vs San Miguel head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Almirante Brown 0 · draws 0 · San Miguel 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-23 | San Miguel | 1-0 | Almirante Brown | Primera Nacional |
Other Matchday 33 fixtures
- Deportivo Madryn vs Chaco For Ever — team news & stats 2026-10-11
- Defensores De Belgrano v Acassuso — match page 2026-10-11
- CA Estudiantes vs Deportivo Moron 2026-10-11
- Atlanta v San Martin Tucuman — match page 2026-10-11
- Patronato vs Club Atlético Güemes 2026-10-11
- Temperley v Nueva Chicago — match page 2026-10-11
- Gimnasia Jujuy v Gimnasia Y Tiro — match page 2026-10-11
- Atletico Mitre vs Colon Santa Fe 2026-10-11