Updated

Primera Nacional · Matchday 33

Almirante Brown vs San Miguel

· Estadio Fragata Presidente Sarmiento, Isidro Casanova

Full time1 – 1

Alin prediction was Almirante Brown to win

Cmodel only, no market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 0

18% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Almirante BrownDrawSan Miguel

Almirante Brown vs San Miguel: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceAlmirante BrownDrawSan Miguel
Model62%27%12%
Market———
Published62%27%12%
Edge———
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.58 vs 0.55.
  • Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Almirante Brown and San Miguel expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.58Almirante Brown
0.55San Miguel
Total expected goals
2.13
Attack rating (Almirante Brown / San Miguel)
0.96 / 0.83
Defence rating (Almirante Brown / San Miguel)
0.93 / 1.43

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Almirante Brown vs San Miguel score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 12.9% 5.5% 1.8% 0.3% 0.1% 1 17.8% 11.3% 2.8% 0.5% 0.1% 2 14.9% 8.1% 2.2% 0.4% 0.1% 3 7.8% 4.3% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 4+ 4.4% 2.4% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: Almirante Brown goals. Columns: San Miguel goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Almirante Brown vs San Miguel goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 87%
Over 1.5 64%
Over 2.5 36%
Over 3.5 17%
Both teams to score
35%
No goals (0–0)
13%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Almirante Brown vs San Miguel

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Almirante Brown62%1.62
Draw27%3.74
San Miguel12%8.65
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.536%2.79
Under 2.564%1.56
Both teams to scoreYes35%2.90
No65%1.53
Double chance1X (Almirante Brown or draw)88%1.13
12 (either side)73%1.36
X2 (draw or San Miguel)38%2.61
Handicap -1Almirante Brown win by 2+35%2.90
Push (exactly one goal)27%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Almirante Brown and San Miguel recent form

Almirante Brown 1W 2D 3L
San Miguel 0W 2D 4L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Almirante Brown at home

Record (W-D-L)
9-4-3
Win rate
56%
Goals for / match
0.94
Goals against / match
0.44
Clean sheets
10 of 16
  • They have won 12 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
  • They have kept 18 clean sheets in 32 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 14 of 32 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

San Miguel away

Record (W-D-L)
1-8-7
Win rate
6%
Goals for / match
0.69
Goals against / match
1.44
Clean sheets
3 of 16
  • They have won 6 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
  • They have kept 9 clean sheets in 32 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 12 of 32 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).

League matches this season before kick-off: Almirante Brown at home only, San Miguel away only.

Almirante Brown vs San Miguel head-to-head

Last 6 meetings: Almirante Brown 1 · draws 2 · San Miguel 3.

Almirante BrownDrawsSan Miguel
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-23San Miguel1-0Almirante BrownPrimera Nacional
2019-10-13Almirante Brown3-0San MiguelPrimera B Metropolitana
2019-03-02Almirante Brown0-0San MiguelPrimera B Metropolitana
2018-09-21San Miguel0-0Almirante BrownPrimera B Metropolitana
2018-03-03Almirante Brown1-2San MiguelPrimera B Metropolitana
2017-10-08San Miguel2-0Almirante BrownPrimera B Metropolitana

Other Matchday 33 fixtures

Before and after this match