Updated

Primera Nacional · Matchday 33

Quilmes vs Agropecuario

· Estadio Centenario Ciudad de Quilmes, Quilmes

Full time0 – 1

Alin prediction was Quilmes to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 0

19% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
QuilmesDrawAgropecuario

Quilmes vs Agropecuario: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceQuilmesDrawAgropecuario
Model46%35%19%
Market52%29%20%
Published50%30%19%
Edge-2%+2%0%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.07 vs 0.59.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Quilmes vs Agropecuario odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Quilmes, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-05.

Opened 1.66Now 1.79 +0.13
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Quilmes1.661.79+0.13
Draw3.403.22-0.18
Agropecuario5.354.71-0.64

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Quilmes and Agropecuario expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.07Quilmes
0.59Agropecuario
Total expected goals
1.66
Attack rating (Quilmes / Agropecuario)
0.96 / 0.85
Defence rating (Quilmes / Agropecuario)
0.98 / 0.98

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Quilmes vs Agropecuario score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 20.1% 10.0% 3.3% 0.7% 0.1% 1 19.1% 13.2% 3.6% 0.7% 0.1% 2 10.9% 6.4% 1.9% 0.4% 0.1% 3 3.9% 2.3% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 4+ 1.3% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%

Rows: Quilmes goals. Columns: Agropecuario goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Quilmes vs Agropecuario goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 80%
Over 1.5 51%
Over 2.5 23%
Over 3.5 9%
Both teams to score
31%
No goals (0–0)
20%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Quilmes vs Agropecuario

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Quilmes50%1.99
Draw30%3.29
Agropecuario19%5.14
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.523%4.29
Under 2.577%1.30
Both teams to scoreYes31%3.27
No69%1.44
Double chance1X (Quilmes or draw)81%1.24
12 (either side)70%1.44
X2 (draw or Agropecuario)50%2.01
Handicap -1Quilmes win by 2+19%5.16
Push (exactly one goal)26%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Quilmes and Agropecuario recent form

Quilmes 2W 1D 3L
Agropecuario 2W 2D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Quilmes at home

Record (W-D-L)
9-4-3
Win rate
56%
Goals for / match
1.19
Goals against / match
0.38
Clean sheets
10 of 16
  • They have won 10 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
  • They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
  • They have kept 14 clean sheets in 32 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 17 of 32 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
  • 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Agropecuario away

Record (W-D-L)
1-5-10
Win rate
6%
Goals for / match
0.56
Goals against / match
1.62
Clean sheets
2 of 16
  • They have won 9 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
  • They average 1.1 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
  • They have kept 12 clean sheets in 32 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 15 of 32 matches.
  • They have converted 5 of 8 penalties (62%).

League matches this season before kick-off: Quilmes at home only, Agropecuario away only.

Quilmes vs Agropecuario head-to-head

Last 9 meetings: Quilmes 2 · draws 5 · Agropecuario 2.

QuilmesDrawsAgropecuario
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-24Agropecuario0-0QuilmesPrimera Nacional
2024-08-20Quilmes1-0AgropecuarioPrimera Nacional
2024-03-29Agropecuario1-1QuilmesPrimera Nacional
2022-03-23Quilmes1-1AgropecuarioPrimera Nacional
2021-08-28Agropecuario3-1QuilmesPrimera Nacional
2021-04-19Quilmes0-0AgropecuarioPrimera Nacional
2021-01-18Agropecuario0-1QuilmesPrimera Nacional
2018-10-30Quilmes0-1AgropecuarioPrimera Nacional
2018-02-06Agropecuario1-1QuilmesPrimera Nacional

Other Matchday 33 fixtures

Before and after this match