Quilmes vs Agropecuario: model vs market
| Source | Quilmes | Draw | Agropecuario |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 46% | 35% | 19% |
| Market | 55% | 27% | 18% |
| Published | 53% | 29% | 18% |
| Edge | -9% | +8% | +1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.07 vs 0.59.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.68, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
Quilmes vs Agropecuario odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Quilmes, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-05.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quilmes | 1.66 | 1.67 | +0.01 |
| Draw | 3.40 | 3.38 | -0.02 |
| Agropecuario | 5.35 | 5.07 | -0.28 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Quilmes and Agropecuario expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.66
- Attack rating (Quilmes / Agropecuario)
- 0.96 / 0.85
- Defence rating (Quilmes / Agropecuario)
- 0.98 / 0.98
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Quilmes vs Agropecuario score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Quilmes goals. Columns: Agropecuario goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Quilmes vs Agropecuario goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 31%
- No goals (0–0)
- 20%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Quilmes vs Agropecuario
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Quilmes | 53% | 1.90 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.43 | |
| Agropecuario | 18% | 5.47 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 23% | 4.29 |
| Under 2.5 | 77% | 1.30 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 31% | 3.27 |
| No | 69% | 1.44 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Quilmes or draw) | 82% | 1.22 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.41 | |
| X2 (draw or Agropecuario) | 47% | 2.11 | |
| Handicap -1 | Quilmes win by 2+ | 19% | 5.16 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Quilmes and Agropecuario recent form
Quilmes
2W 1D 3L
Agropecuario
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Quilmes at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 9-4-3
- Win rate
- 56%
- Goals for / match
- 1.19
- Goals against / match
- 0.38
- Clean sheets
- 10 of 16
- They have won 10 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 16 of 31 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Agropecuario away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-5-10
- Win rate
- 6%
- Goals for / match
- 0.56
- Goals against / match
- 1.62
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 16
- They have won 9 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.1 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 14 of 31 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 8 penalties (62%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Quilmes at home only, Agropecuario away only.
Quilmes vs Agropecuario head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Quilmes 0 · draws 1 · Agropecuario 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | Agropecuario | 0-0 | Quilmes | Primera Nacional |
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