Updated

Primera Nacional · Matchday 34

Agropecuario vs Colegiales

· Ofelia Rosenzuaig, Buenos Aires

Full time0 – 3

Alin prediction was Agropecuario to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 0

18% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
AgropecuarioDrawColegiales

Agropecuario vs Colegiales: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceAgropecuarioDrawColegiales
Model40%38%22%
Market42%32%26%
Published42%33%25%
Edge-2%+6%-4%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 0.93 vs 0.63.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Agropecuario vs Colegiales odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Agropecuario, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-12.

Opened 2.05Now 2.17 +0.12
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Agropecuario2.052.17+0.12
Draw2.932.88-0.05
Colegiales3.653.50-0.15

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Agropecuario and Colegiales expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.93Agropecuario
0.63Colegiales
Total expected goals
1.56
Attack rating (Agropecuario / Colegiales)
0.89 / 1.03
Defence rating (Agropecuario / Colegiales)
0.86 / 0.91

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Agropecuario vs Colegiales score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 22.2% 12.0% 4.1% 0.9% 0.2% 1 18.3% 13.5% 3.9% 0.8% 0.1% 2 9.1% 5.7% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1% 3 2.8% 1.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 4+ 0.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%

Rows: Agropecuario goals. Columns: Colegiales goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Agropecuario vs Colegiales goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 78%
Over 1.5 48%
Over 2.5 21%
Over 3.5 7%
Both teams to score
30%
No goals (0–0)
22%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Agropecuario vs Colegiales

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Agropecuario42%2.41
Draw33%3.01
Colegiales25%3.97
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.521%4.83
Under 2.579%1.26
Both teams to scoreYes30%3.38
No70%1.42
Double chance1X (Agropecuario or draw)75%1.34
12 (either side)67%1.50
X2 (draw or Colegiales)58%1.71
Handicap -1Agropecuario win by 2+15%6.56
Push (exactly one goal)25%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Agropecuario and Colegiales recent form

Agropecuario 3W 1D 2L
Colegiales 3W 1D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Agropecuario at home

Record (W-D-L)
8-5-3
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
1.06
Goals against / match
0.56
Clean sheets
10 of 16
  • They have won 10 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
  • They have kept 13 clean sheets in 33 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 15 of 33 matches.
  • They have converted 5 of 8 penalties (62%).

Colegiales away

Record (W-D-L)
2-3-11
Win rate
12%
Goals for / match
0.38
Goals against / match
1.38
Clean sheets
5 of 16
  • They have won 13 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
  • They have kept 15 clean sheets in 33 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 13 of 33 matches.
  • 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Agropecuario at home only, Colegiales away only.

Agropecuario vs Colegiales head-to-head

Last 1 meetings: Agropecuario 0 · draws 1 · Colegiales 0.

AgropecuarioDrawsColegiales
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-30Colegiales0-0AgropecuarioPrimera Nacional

Other Matchday 34 fixtures

Before and after this match