Updated

Primera Nacional · Matchday 34

Chacarita Juniors vs Deportivo Maipu

· Estadio de Chacarita Juniors, Buenos Aires

Full time1 – 0

Alin prediction was Chacarita Juniors to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 0

14% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Chacarita JuniorsDrawDeportivo Maipu

Chacarita Juniors vs Deportivo Maipu: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceChacarita JuniorsDrawDeportivo Maipu
Model33%36%32%
Market45%32%23%
Published42%33%25%
Edge-12%+3%+9%

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Chacarita Juniors vs Deportivo Maipu odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Chacarita Juniors, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-12.

Opened 2.05Now 2.05 +0.00
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Chacarita Juniors2.052.05+0.00
Draw2.882.86-0.02
Deportivo Maipu3.804.05+0.25

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Chacarita Juniors and Deportivo Maipu expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.90Chacarita Juniors
0.88Deportivo Maipu
Total expected goals
1.78
Attack rating (Chacarita Juniors / Deportivo Maipu)
0.91 / 1.13
Defence rating (Chacarita Juniors / Deportivo Maipu)
1.10 / 0.86

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Chacarita Juniors vs Deportivo Maipu score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 18.1% 13.5% 6.5% 1.9% 0.5% 1 13.8% 14.7% 5.9% 1.7% 0.5% 2 6.8% 6.0% 2.7% 0.8% 0.2% 3 2.1% 1.8% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 4+ 0.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: Chacarita Juniors goals. Columns: Deportivo Maipu goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Chacarita Juniors vs Deportivo Maipu goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 82%
Over 1.5 55%
Over 2.5 27%
Over 3.5 11%
Both teams to score
36%
No goals (0–0)
18%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Chacarita Juniors vs Deportivo Maipu

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Chacarita Juniors42%2.39
Draw33%3.02
Deportivo Maipu25%4.00
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.527%3.77
Under 2.573%1.36
Both teams to scoreYes36%2.76
No64%1.57
Double chance1X (Chacarita Juniors or draw)75%1.33
12 (either side)67%1.50
X2 (draw or Deportivo Maipu)58%1.72
Handicap -1Chacarita Juniors win by 2+12%8.35
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Chacarita Juniors and Deportivo Maipu recent form

Chacarita Juniors 2W 0D 4L
Deportivo Maipu 2W 4D 0L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Chacarita Juniors at home

Record (W-D-L)
8-3-5
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
1.06
Goals against / match
0.69
Clean sheets
8 of 16
  • They have won 9 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
  • They average 1.1 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
  • They have kept 10 clean sheets in 33 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 16 of 33 matches.
  • 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Deportivo Maipu away

Record (W-D-L)
4-4-8
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
1.25
Goals against / match
1.31
Clean sheets
3 of 16
  • They have won 13 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They have kept 11 clean sheets in 33 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 11 of 33 matches.
  • They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).

League matches this season before kick-off: Chacarita Juniors at home only, Deportivo Maipu away only.

Chacarita Juniors vs Deportivo Maipu head-to-head

Last 9 meetings: Chacarita Juniors 5 · draws 1 · Deportivo Maipu 3.

Chacarita JuniorsDrawsDeportivo Maipu
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-31Deportivo Maipu3-2Chacarita JuniorsPrimera Nacional
2024-06-23Deportivo Maipu0-2Chacarita JuniorsPrimera Nacional
2024-02-03Chacarita Juniors2-0Deportivo MaipuPrimera Nacional
2023-07-02Chacarita Juniors2-1Deportivo MaipuPrimera Nacional
2023-02-26Deportivo Maipu0-2Chacarita JuniorsPrimera Nacional
2022-04-17Deportivo Maipu1-1Chacarita JuniorsPrimera Nacional
2021-10-02Chacarita Juniors1-2Deportivo MaipuPrimera Nacional
2021-06-10Deportivo Maipu1-2Chacarita JuniorsPrimera Nacional
2018-05-15Chacarita Juniors0-3Deportivo MaipuCopa Argentina

Other Matchday 34 fixtures

Before and after this match