Deportivo Moron vs Atletico Mitre preview
Deportivo Moron has a 60% chance to win against Atletico Mitre, who has only a 14% probability of victory. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which occurs 14% of the time according to our model. However, the match could see a different outcome if Atletico Mitre performs better than expected, as they have shown some resilience in their recent draws.
The chances for Over 2.5 goals stand at 45%, while both teams to score is at 44%. Deportivo Moron averages 1.74 expected goals, compared to Atletico Mitre's 0.74. This indicates that while Moron is favored, the potential for a low-scoring affair remains, especially if Atletico Mitre can tighten their defense.
Deportivo Moron vs Atletico Mitre: model vs market
| Source | Deportivo Moron | Draw | Atletico Mitre |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 60% | 25% | 14% |
| Market | 59% | 27% | 13% |
| Published | 60% | 27% | 14% |
| Edge | +1% | -2% | +1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.74 vs 0.74.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.60, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Deportivo Moron vs Atletico Mitre odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Deportivo Moron, 10 snapshots since 2026-10-13.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Moron | 1.60 | 1.56 | -0.04 |
| Draw | 3.23 | 3.35 | +0.12 |
| Atletico Mitre | 5.80 | 6.93 | +1.13 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Deportivo Moron and Atletico Mitre expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.48
- Attack rating (Deportivo Moron / Atletico Mitre)
- 1.45 / 0.79
- Defence rating (Deportivo Moron / Atletico Mitre)
- 1.32 / 1.05
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Deportivo Moron vs Atletico Mitre score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Deportivo Moron goals. Columns: Atletico Mitre goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Deportivo Moron vs Atletico Mitre goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 44%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Deportivo Moron vs Atletico Mitre
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Deportivo Moron | 60% | 1.68 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.71 | |
| Atletico Mitre | 14% | 7.38 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 45% | 2.21 |
| Under 2.5 | 55% | 1.82 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44% | 2.27 |
| No | 56% | 1.79 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Deportivo Moron or draw) | 86% | 1.16 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or Atletico Mitre) | 40% | 2.47 | |
| Handicap -1 | Deportivo Moron win by 2+ | 35% | 2.84 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Deportivo Moron and Atletico Mitre recent form
Deportivo Moron
3W 0D 3L
Atletico Mitre
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Deportivo Moron at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 12-3-1
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 1.94
- Goals against / match
- 0.69
- Clean sheets
- 8 of 16
- They have won 17 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 8 of 8 penalties (100%).
Atletico Mitre away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-8-6
- Win rate
- 12%
- Goals for / match
- 0.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.31
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 16
- They have won 7 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 13 of 33 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Deportivo Moron at home only, Atletico Mitre away only.
Deportivo Moron vs Atletico Mitre head-to-head
Last 9 meetings: Deportivo Moron 3 · draws 4 · Atletico Mitre 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-31 | Atletico Mitre | 1-3 | Deportivo Moron | Primera Nacional |
| 2025-09-28 | Deportivo Moron | 3-0 | Atletico Mitre | Primera Nacional |
| 2025-05-25 | Atletico Mitre | 0-0 | Deportivo Moron | Primera Nacional |
| 2024-09-22 | Deportivo Moron | 1-2 | Atletico Mitre | Primera Nacional |
| 2024-05-04 | Atletico Mitre | 0-0 | Deportivo Moron | Primera Nacional |
| 2022-09-18 | Deportivo Moron | 1-0 | Atletico Mitre | Primera Nacional |
| 2019-10-14 | Atletico Mitre | 1-1 | Deportivo Moron | Primera Nacional |
| 2018-12-11 | Atletico Mitre | 1-0 | Deportivo Moron | Primera Nacional |
| 2018-03-10 | Deportivo Moron | 1-1 | Atletico Mitre | Primera Nacional |
Other Matchday 34 fixtures
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Before and after this match
- Deportivo Moron, previous: CA Estudiantes vs Deportivo Moron prediction
- Atletico Mitre, previous: Atletico Mitre v Colon Santa Fe analysis