San Martin Tucuman vs Midland preview
In the fixture between San Martin Tucuman and Midland, the 1X2 probabilities suggest a 42% chance for San Martin Tucuman to win, compared to 27% for Midland. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with an 8% probability. Both teams to score stands at 55%, indicating a reasonable chance for goals from both sides.
San Martin Tucuman's recent form shows 2 wins and 3 losses, while Midland has 3 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses. The expected goals are close, with San Martin Tucuman at 1.35 and Midland at 1.28. A low-scoring game could occur if either team fails to convert their chances, which could affect the outcome of the match.
San Martin Tucuman vs Midland: model vs market
| Source | San Martin Tucuman | Draw | Midland |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 37% | 29% | 34% |
| Market | 44% | 33% | 24% |
| Published | 42% | 32% | 26% |
| Edge | -6% | -4% | +10% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.18, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
San Martin Tucuman vs Midland odds movement
Median bookmaker price on San Martin Tucuman, 10 snapshots since 2026-10-13.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Martin Tucuman | 2.15 | 2.10 | -0.04 |
| Draw | 2.85 | 2.81 | -0.04 |
| Midland | 3.75 | 3.90 | +0.15 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
San Martin Tucuman and Midland expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.63
- Attack rating (San Martin Tucuman / Midland)
- 1.30 / 1.39
- Defence rating (San Martin Tucuman / Midland)
- 1.30 / 0.90
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
San Martin Tucuman vs Midland score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: San Martin Tucuman goals. Columns: Midland goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
San Martin Tucuman vs Midland goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 55%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for San Martin Tucuman vs Midland
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | San Martin Tucuman | 42% | 2.37 |
| Draw | 32% | 3.15 | |
| Midland | 26% | 3.82 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49% | 2.05 |
| Under 2.5 | 51% | 1.95 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55% | 1.83 |
| No | 45% | 2.21 | |
| Double chance | 1X (San Martin Tucuman or draw) | 74% | 1.35 |
| 12 (either side) | 68% | 1.46 | |
| X2 (draw or Midland) | 58% | 1.73 | |
| Handicap -1 | San Martin Tucuman win by 2+ | 18% | 5.67 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
San Martin Tucuman and Midland recent form
San Martin Tucuman
2W 1D 3L
Midland
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
San Martin Tucuman at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-8-2
- Win rate
- 38%
- Goals for / match
- 1.31
- Goals against / match
- 0.69
- Clean sheets
- 8 of 16
- They have won 10 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 32 matches.
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Midland away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-6-7
- Win rate
- 19%
- Goals for / match
- 0.94
- Goals against / match
- 1.19
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 16
- They have won 13 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 14 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 32 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: San Martin Tucuman at home only, Midland away only.
San Martin Tucuman vs Midland head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: San Martin Tucuman 0 · draws 0 · Midland 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-31 | Midland | 2-0 | San Martin Tucuman | Primera Nacional |
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Before and after this match
- San Martin Tucuman, previous: Atlanta – San Martin Tucuman, 2026-10-11
- Midland, previous: Midland – Atletico DE Rafaela, 2026-10-10