Club Atlético Güemes vs Almagro preview
In the fixture between Club Atlético Güemes and Almagro, the 1X2 probabilities show Club Atlético Güemes at 19%, draw at 31%, and Almagro leading at 50%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a 16% chance. Almagro's expected goals stand at 1.31, while Club Atlético Güemes has a lower figure of 0.71.
Club Atlético Güemes is struggling with a recent form of L-L-L-L-L-L, while Almagro has a mixed record of W-W-L-L-D-L. The model indicates a 33% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 38% chance for both teams to score. A surprising performance from Club Atlético Güemes could change the expected outcome.
Club Atlético Güemes vs Almagro: model vs market
| Source | Club Atlético Güemes | Draw | Almagro |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 19% | 31% | 50% |
| Market | 10% | 20% | 70% |
| Published | 12% | 23% | 65% |
| Edge | +9% | +11% | -20% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.31 vs 0.71.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.25, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Club Atlético Güemes vs Almagro odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Almagro, 10 snapshots since 2026-10-13.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Club Atlético Güemes | 3.25 | 9.00 | +5.75 |
| Draw | 2.93 | 4.50 | +1.57 |
| Almagro | 2.21 | 1.29 | -0.92 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Club Atlético Güemes and Almagro expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.02
- Attack rating (Club Atlético Güemes / Almagro)
- 0.46 / 1.14
- Defence rating (Club Atlético Güemes / Almagro)
- 1.62 / 1.34
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Club Atlético Güemes vs Almagro score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Club Atlético Güemes goals. Columns: Almagro goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Club Atlético Güemes vs Almagro goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 38%
- No goals (0–0)
- 14%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Club Atlético Güemes vs Almagro
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Club Atlético Güemes | 12% | 8.14 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.38 | |
| Almagro | 65% | 1.54 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 33% | 3.04 |
| Under 2.5 | 67% | 1.49 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 38% | 2.60 |
| No | 62% | 1.62 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Club Atlético Güemes or draw) | 35% | 2.85 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or Almagro) | 88% | 1.14 | |
| Handicap -1 | Almagro win by 2+ | 24% | 4.15 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Club Atlético Güemes and Almagro recent form
Club Atlético Güemes
0W 0D 6L
Almagro
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Club Atlético Güemes at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-3-9
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 0.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 16
- They have won 5 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 14 of 33 matches.
Almagro away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-4-8
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 0.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 16
- They have won 11 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 13 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Club Atlético Güemes at home only, Almagro away only.
Club Atlético Güemes vs Almagro head-to-head
Last 8 meetings: Club Atlético Güemes 2 · draws 3 · Almagro 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-31 | Almagro | 2-0 | Club Atlético Güemes | Primera Nacional |
| 2025-10-04 | Almagro | 0-1 | Club Atlético Güemes | Primera Nacional |
| 2025-05-31 | Club Atlético Güemes | 1-1 | Almagro | Primera Nacional |
| 2023-10-16 | Club Atlético Güemes | 1-0 | Almagro | Primera Nacional |
| 2023-06-03 | Almagro | 1-1 | Club Atlético Güemes | Primera Nacional |
| 2022-06-19 | Club Atlético Güemes | 1-2 | Almagro | Primera Nacional |
| 2021-11-01 | Almagro | 0-0 | Club Atlético Güemes | Primera Nacional |
| 2021-07-04 | Club Atlético Güemes | 0-2 | Almagro | Primera Nacional |
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Before and after this match
- Club Atlético Güemes, previous: Patronato vs Club Atlético Güemes: odds and pick
- Almagro, previous: Almagro – Chacarita Juniors, 2026-10-10