Patronato vs Club Atlético Güemes: model vs market
| Source | Patronato | Draw | Club Atlético Güemes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 76% | 19% | 5% |
| Market | 59% | 26% | 15% |
| Published | 63% | 24% | 12% |
| Edge | +17% | -8% | -10% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.04 vs 0.39.
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Patronato below the model: +17.3 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.62, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
Patronato vs Club Atlético Güemes odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Patronato, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-06.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Patronato | 1.55 | 1.55 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.45 | 3.45 | +0.00 |
| Club Atlético Güemes | 6.10 | 6.10 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Patronato and Club Atlético Güemes expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.42
- Attack rating (Patronato / Club Atlético Güemes)
- 1.10 / 0.51
- Defence rating (Patronato / Club Atlético Güemes)
- 1.07 / 1.62
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Patronato vs Club Atlético Güemes score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Patronato goals. Columns: Club Atlético Güemes goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Patronato vs Club Atlético Güemes goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 29%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Patronato vs Club Atlético Güemes
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Patronato | 63% | 1.59 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.09 | |
| Club Atlético Güemes | 12% | 8.00 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 44% | 2.29 |
| Under 2.5 | 56% | 1.78 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 29% | 3.50 |
| No | 71% | 1.40 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Patronato or draw) | 88% | 1.14 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or Club Atlético Güemes) | 37% | 2.71 | |
| Handicap -1 | Patronato win by 2+ | 51% | 1.98 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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| 4 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Patronato and Club Atlético Güemes recent form
Patronato
1W 3D 2L
Club Atlético Güemes
0W 1D 5L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Patronato at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-7-4
- Win rate
- 31%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 0.94
- Clean sheets
- 7 of 16
- They have won 6 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 15 of 31 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Club Atlético Güemes away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-5-10
- Win rate
- 6%
- Goals for / match
- 0.69
- Goals against / match
- 1.88
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 16
- They have won 5 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 12 of 31 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Patronato at home only, Club Atlético Güemes away only.
Patronato vs Club Atlético Güemes head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Patronato 0 · draws 2 · Club Atlético Güemes 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | Club Atlético Güemes | 1-0 | Patronato | Primera Nacional |
| 2025-06-22 | Patronato | 1-1 | Club Atlético Güemes | Primera Nacional |
| 2025-02-15 | Club Atlético Güemes | 1-1 | Patronato | Primera Nacional |
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