Updated

Primera Nacional · Matchday 33

Atlanta vs San Martin Tucuman

Full time1 – 0

Alin prediction was Atlanta to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
AtlantaDrawSan Martin Tucuman

Atlanta vs San Martin Tucuman: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceAtlantaDrawSan Martin Tucuman
Model51%26%23%
Market43%32%25%
Published45%30%25%
Edge+2%-2%-1%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.75 vs 1.11.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Atlanta below our published probability: +2.1 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Atlanta vs San Martin Tucuman odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Atlanta, 13 snapshots since 2026-10-05.

Opened 2.10Now 2.13 +0.03
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Atlanta2.102.13+0.03
Draw2.802.88+0.08
San Martin Tucuman3.773.62-0.15

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Atlanta and San Martin Tucuman expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.75Atlanta
1.11San Martin Tucuman
Total expected goals
2.86
Attack rating (Atlanta / San Martin Tucuman)
1.15 / 1.44
Defence rating (Atlanta / San Martin Tucuman)
1.09 / 1.32

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Atlanta vs San Martin Tucuman score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.8% 5.3% 3.5% 1.3% 0.5% 1 8.9% 12.2% 6.2% 2.3% 0.8% 2 8.7% 9.7% 5.4% 2.0% 0.7% 3 5.1% 5.7% 3.2% 1.2% 0.4% 4+ 3.3% 3.7% 2.0% 0.8% 0.3%

Rows: Atlanta goals. Columns: San Martin Tucuman goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Atlanta vs San Martin Tucuman goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%
Over 1.5 79%
Over 2.5 54%
Over 3.5 32%
Both teams to score
57%
No goals (0–0)
7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Atlanta vs San Martin Tucuman

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Atlanta45%2.23
Draw30%3.30
San Martin Tucuman25%4.04
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.554%1.84
Under 2.546%2.20
Both teams to scoreYes57%1.77
No43%2.30
Double chance1X (Atlanta or draw)75%1.33
12 (either side)70%1.44
X2 (draw or San Martin Tucuman)55%1.82
Handicap -1Atlanta win by 2+29%3.47
Push (exactly one goal)22%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Atlanta and San Martin Tucuman recent form

Atlanta 4W 1D 1L
San Martin Tucuman 2W 2D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Atlanta at home

Record (W-D-L)
10-2-4
Win rate
62%
Goals for / match
1.31
Goals against / match
0.62
Clean sheets
9 of 16
  • They have won 17 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They have kept 15 clean sheets in 32 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 8 of 32 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).

San Martin Tucuman away

Record (W-D-L)
4-5-7
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
0.88
Goals against / match
1.31
Clean sheets
4 of 16
  • They have won 10 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They have kept 12 clean sheets in 32 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 10 of 32 matches.
  • 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Atlanta at home only, San Martin Tucuman away only.

Atlanta vs San Martin Tucuman head-to-head

Last 7 meetings: Atlanta 3 · draws 2 · San Martin Tucuman 2.

AtlantaDrawsSan Martin Tucuman
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-24San Martin Tucuman0-1AtlantaPrimera Nacional
2025-09-14San Martin Tucuman4-0AtlantaPrimera Nacional
2025-05-11Atlanta3-1San Martin TucumanPrimera Nacional
2022-07-23San Martin Tucuman0-0AtlantaPrimera Nacional
2021-08-18San Martin Tucuman3-0AtlantaPrimera Nacional
2021-04-04Atlanta2-1San Martin TucumanPrimera Nacional
2021-01-17Atlanta2-2San Martin TucumanPrimera Nacional

Other Matchday 33 fixtures

Before and after this match