Atlanta vs San Martin Tucuman: model vs market
| Source | Atlanta | Draw | San Martin Tucuman |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 51% | 26% | 23% |
| Market | 43% | 33% | 24% |
| Published | 45% | 31% | 24% |
| Edge | +8% | -7% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.75 vs 1.11.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Atlanta below the model: +7.7 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.19, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
Atlanta vs San Martin Tucuman odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Atlanta, 3 snapshots since 2026-10-05.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta | 2.10 | 2.10 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 2.80 | 2.80 | +0.00 |
| San Martin Tucuman | 3.77 | 3.77 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Atlanta and San Martin Tucuman expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.86
- Attack rating (Atlanta / San Martin Tucuman)
- 1.15 / 1.44
- Defence rating (Atlanta / San Martin Tucuman)
- 1.09 / 1.32
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Atlanta vs San Martin Tucuman score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Atlanta goals. Columns: San Martin Tucuman goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Atlanta vs San Martin Tucuman goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 57%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Atlanta vs San Martin Tucuman
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atlanta | 45% | 2.21 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.24 | |
| San Martin Tucuman | 24% | 4.19 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54% | 1.84 |
| Under 2.5 | 46% | 2.20 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57% | 1.77 |
| No | 43% | 2.30 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Atlanta or draw) | 76% | 1.31 |
| 12 (either side) | 69% | 1.45 | |
| X2 (draw or San Martin Tucuman) | 55% | 1.83 | |
| Handicap -1 | Atlanta win by 2+ | 29% | 3.48 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Atlanta and San Martin Tucuman recent form
Atlanta
4W 1D 1L
San Martin Tucuman
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Atlanta at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 10-2-4
- Win rate
- 62%
- Goals for / match
- 1.31
- Goals against / match
- 0.62
- Clean sheets
- 9 of 16
- They have won 16 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 15 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
San Martin Tucuman away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-5-7
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 0.88
- Goals against / match
- 1.31
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 16
- They have won 9 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 31 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Atlanta at home only, San Martin Tucuman away only.
Atlanta vs San Martin Tucuman head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Atlanta 2 · draws 0 · San Martin Tucuman 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | San Martin Tucuman | 0-1 | Atlanta | Primera Nacional |
| 2025-09-14 | San Martin Tucuman | 4-0 | Atlanta | Primera Nacional |
| 2025-05-11 | Atlanta | 3-1 | San Martin Tucuman | Primera Nacional |
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