Colegiales vs Tristan Suarez: model vs market
| Source | Colegiales | Draw | Tristan Suarez |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 27% | 42% | 32% |
| Market | 35% | 36% | 29% |
| Published | 33% | 38% | 30% |
| Edge | -8% | +5% | +2% |
- The market prices the draw below the model: +5.4 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.63, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
Colegiales vs Tristan Suarez odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Draw, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-05.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Colegiales | 2.67 | 2.62 | -0.05 |
| Draw | 2.50 | 2.50 | +0.00 |
| Tristan Suarez | 3.10 | 3.10 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Colegiales and Tristan Suarez expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.34
- Attack rating (Colegiales / Tristan Suarez)
- 1.19 / 0.99
- Defence rating (Colegiales / Tristan Suarez)
- 1.01 / 0.46
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Colegiales vs Tristan Suarez score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Colegiales goals. Columns: Tristan Suarez goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Colegiales vs Tristan Suarez goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 25%
- No goals (0–0)
- 27%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Colegiales vs Tristan Suarez
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Colegiales | 33% | 3.07 |
| Draw | 38% | 2.66 | |
| Tristan Suarez | 30% | 3.35 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 15% | 6.55 |
| Under 2.5 | 85% | 1.18 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 25% | 4.00 |
| No | 75% | 1.33 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Colegiales or draw) | 70% | 1.43 |
| 12 (either side) | 62% | 1.60 | |
| X2 (draw or Tristan Suarez) | 67% | 1.48 | |
| Handicap -1 | Colegiales win by 2+ | 7% | 13.42 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Colegiales and Tristan Suarez recent form
Colegiales
4W 0D 2L
Tristan Suarez
2W 4D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Colegiales at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 11-4-1
- Win rate
- 69%
- Goals for / match
- 1.62
- Goals against / match
- 0.56
- Clean sheets
- 9 of 16
- They have won 12 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 12 of 31 matches.
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Tristan Suarez away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-6-3
- Win rate
- 44%
- Goals for / match
- 0.88
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 11 of 16
- They have won 15 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 21 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Colegiales at home only, Tristan Suarez away only.
Colegiales vs Tristan Suarez head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Colegiales 1 · draws 2 · Tristan Suarez 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-23 | Tristan Suarez | 0-0 | Colegiales | Primera Nacional |
| 2025-09-14 | Tristan Suarez | 2-2 | Colegiales | Primera Nacional |
| 2025-05-10 | Colegiales | 1-0 | Tristan Suarez | Primera Nacional |
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