Updated

Primera Nacional · Matchday 33

Colegiales vs Tristan Suarez

· Estadio de Colegiales, Buenos Aires

Full time0 – 0

Alin prediction was The draw

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 0 – 0

27% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
ColegialesDrawTristan Suarez

Colegiales vs Tristan Suarez: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceColegialesDrawTristan Suarez
Model27%42%32%
Market36%35%29%
Published34%37%30%
Edge-2%+2%+1%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Colegiales vs Tristan Suarez odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Draw, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-05.

Opened 2.50Now 2.60 +0.10
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Colegiales2.672.55-0.12
Draw2.502.60+0.10
Tristan Suarez3.103.16+0.06

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Colegiales and Tristan Suarez expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.63Colegiales
0.71Tristan Suarez
Total expected goals
1.34
Attack rating (Colegiales / Tristan Suarez)
1.19 / 0.99
Defence rating (Colegiales / Tristan Suarez)
1.01 / 0.46

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Colegiales vs Tristan Suarez score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 27.3% 17.4% 6.6% 1.6% 0.3% 1 15.3% 12.9% 4.2% 1.0% 0.2% 2 5.2% 3.7% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 3 1.1% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 4+ 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Rows: Colegiales goals. Columns: Tristan Suarez goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Colegiales vs Tristan Suarez goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 73%
Over 1.5 40%
Over 2.5 15%
Over 3.5 5%
Both teams to score
25%
No goals (0–0)
27%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Colegiales vs Tristan Suarez

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Colegiales34%2.98
Draw37%2.72
Tristan Suarez30%3.37
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.515%6.55
Under 2.585%1.18
Both teams to scoreYes25%4.00
No75%1.33
Double chance1X (Colegiales or draw)70%1.42
12 (either side)63%1.58
X2 (draw or Tristan Suarez)66%1.51
Handicap -1Colegiales win by 2+7%13.42
Push (exactly one goal)19%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Colegiales and Tristan Suarez recent form

Colegiales 4W 0D 2L
Tristan Suarez 2W 4D 0L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Colegiales at home

Record (W-D-L)
11-4-1
Win rate
69%
Goals for / match
1.62
Goals against / match
0.56
Clean sheets
9 of 16
  • They have won 13 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
  • They have kept 14 clean sheets in 32 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 12 of 32 matches.
  • 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Tristan Suarez away

Record (W-D-L)
7-6-3
Win rate
44%
Goals for / match
0.88
Goals against / match
0.50
Clean sheets
11 of 16
  • They have won 15 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They have kept 22 clean sheets in 32 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 12 of 32 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).

League matches this season before kick-off: Colegiales at home only, Tristan Suarez away only.

Colegiales vs Tristan Suarez head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Colegiales 4 · draws 3 · Tristan Suarez 3.

ColegialesDrawsTristan Suarez
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-23Tristan Suarez0-0ColegialesPrimera Nacional
2025-09-14Tristan Suarez2-2ColegialesPrimera Nacional
2025-05-10Colegiales1-0Tristan SuarezPrimera Nacional
2020-03-01Colegiales1-0Tristan SuarezPrimera B Metropolitana
2019-09-13Tristan Suarez3-1ColegialesPrimera B Metropolitana
2019-04-28Colegiales3-1Tristan SuarezPrimera B Metropolitana
2018-11-17Tristan Suarez1-1ColegialesPrimera B Metropolitana
2018-02-25Tristan Suarez2-0ColegialesPrimera B Metropolitana
2017-09-30Colegiales0-1Tristan SuarezPrimera B Metropolitana
2017-06-26Tristan Suarez0-4ColegialesPrimera B Metropolitana

Other Matchday 33 fixtures

Before and after this match