Updated

Primera Nacional · Matchday 33

CA Estudiantes vs Deportivo Moron

· Estadio Ciudad de Caseros, Buenos Aires

Full time2 – 0

Alin prediction was CA Estudiantes to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 0

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
CA EstudiantesDrawDeportivo Moron

CA Estudiantes vs Deportivo Moron: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceCA EstudiantesDrawDeportivo Moron
Model48%28%25%
Market32%35%33%
Published36%34%31%
Edge+4%-2%-2%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.56 vs 1.06.
  • The market prices CA Estudiantes below our published probability: +4.0 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

CA Estudiantes vs Deportivo Moron odds movement

Median bookmaker price on CA Estudiantes, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-05.

Opened 2.52Now 2.88 +0.35
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
CA Estudiantes2.522.88+0.35
Draw2.582.58+0.00
Deportivo Moron3.202.81-0.39

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

CA Estudiantes and Deportivo Moron expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.56CA Estudiantes
1.06Deportivo Moron
Total expected goals
2.61
Attack rating (CA Estudiantes / Deportivo Moron)
1.09 / 1.58
Defence rating (CA Estudiantes / Deportivo Moron)
0.94 / 1.24

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

CA Estudiantes vs Deportivo Moron score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 8.5% 6.5% 4.1% 1.4% 0.5% 1 10.2% 13.3% 6.4% 2.2% 0.7% 2 8.9% 9.4% 5.0% 1.7% 0.6% 3 4.6% 4.9% 2.6% 0.9% 0.3% 4+ 2.5% 2.7% 1.4% 0.5% 0.2%

Rows: CA Estudiantes goals. Columns: Deportivo Moron goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

CA Estudiantes vs Deportivo Moron goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 91%
Over 1.5 75%
Over 2.5 48%
Over 3.5 27%
Both teams to score
53%
No goals (0–0)
9%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for CA Estudiantes vs Deportivo Moron

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2CA Estudiantes36%2.79
Draw34%2.98
Deportivo Moron31%3.27
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.548%2.06
Under 2.552%1.94
Both teams to scoreYes53%1.90
No47%2.11
Double chance1X (CA Estudiantes or draw)69%1.44
12 (either side)66%1.51
X2 (draw or Deportivo Moron)64%1.56
Handicap -1CA Estudiantes win by 2+25%3.98
Push (exactly one goal)23%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

CA Estudiantes and Deportivo Moron recent form

CA Estudiantes 3W 1D 2L
Deportivo Moron 4W 0D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

CA Estudiantes at home

Record (W-D-L)
7-5-4
Win rate
44%
Goals for / match
1.12
Goals against / match
0.81
Clean sheets
6 of 16
  • They have won 12 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
  • They have kept 12 clean sheets in 32 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 12 of 32 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).

Deportivo Moron away

Record (W-D-L)
5-4-7
Win rate
31%
Goals for / match
1.25
Goals against / match
1.31
Clean sheets
2 of 16
  • They have won 17 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
  • They have kept 10 clean sheets in 32 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 6 of 32 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • They have converted 8 of 8 penalties (100%).

League matches this season before kick-off: CA Estudiantes at home only, Deportivo Moron away only.

CA Estudiantes vs Deportivo Moron head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: CA Estudiantes 3 · draws 2 · Deportivo Moron 5.

CA EstudiantesDrawsDeportivo Moron
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-24Deportivo Moron2-0CA EstudiantesPrimera Nacional
2025-09-01Deportivo Moron1-1CA EstudiantesPrimera Nacional
2025-04-26CA Estudiantes0-1Deportivo MoronPrimera Nacional
2022-04-03Deportivo Moron0-1CA EstudiantesPrimera Nacional
2020-12-29Deportivo Moron2-1CA EstudiantesPrimera Nacional
2020-03-07Deportivo Moron1-0CA EstudiantesPrimera Nacional
2019-09-14CA Estudiantes1-0Deportivo MoronPrimera Nacional
2017-03-17Deportivo Moron2-0CA EstudiantesPrimera B Metropolitana
2016-09-03CA Estudiantes2-1Deportivo MoronPrimera B Metropolitana
2015-07-18Deportivo Moron0-0CA EstudiantesPrimera B Metropolitana

Other Matchday 33 fixtures

Before and after this match