CA Estudiantes vs Deportivo Moron: model vs market
| Source | CA Estudiantes | Draw | Deportivo Moron |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48% | 28% | 25% |
| Market | 36% | 35% | 28% |
| Published | 39% | 33% | 27% |
| Edge | +11% | -8% | -4% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.56 vs 1.06.
- The market prices CA Estudiantes below the model: +11.4 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.61, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
CA Estudiantes vs Deportivo Moron odds movement
Median bookmaker price on CA Estudiantes, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-05.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| CA Estudiantes | 2.52 | 2.50 | -0.02 |
| Draw | 2.58 | 2.56 | -0.02 |
| Deportivo Moron | 3.20 | 3.20 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
CA Estudiantes and Deportivo Moron expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.61
- Attack rating (CA Estudiantes / Deportivo Moron)
- 1.09 / 1.58
- Defence rating (CA Estudiantes / Deportivo Moron)
- 0.94 / 1.24
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
CA Estudiantes vs Deportivo Moron score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: CA Estudiantes goals. Columns: Deportivo Moron goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
CA Estudiantes vs Deportivo Moron goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 53%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for CA Estudiantes vs Deportivo Moron
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | CA Estudiantes | 39% | 2.56 |
| Draw | 33% | 2.99 | |
| Deportivo Moron | 27% | 3.65 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 48% | 2.06 |
| Under 2.5 | 52% | 1.94 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53% | 1.90 |
| No | 47% | 2.11 | |
| Double chance | 1X (CA Estudiantes or draw) | 73% | 1.38 |
| 12 (either side) | 67% | 1.50 | |
| X2 (draw or Deportivo Moron) | 61% | 1.64 | |
| Handicap -1 | CA Estudiantes win by 2+ | 25% | 3.98 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
CA Estudiantes and Deportivo Moron recent form
CA Estudiantes
3W 1D 2L
Deportivo Moron
4W 0D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
CA Estudiantes at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-5-4
- Win rate
- 44%
- Goals for / match
- 1.12
- Goals against / match
- 0.81
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 16
- They have won 12 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
Deportivo Moron away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-4-7
- Win rate
- 31%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.31
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 16
- They have won 16 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 8 of 8 penalties (100%).
League matches this season before kick-off: CA Estudiantes at home only, Deportivo Moron away only.
CA Estudiantes vs Deportivo Moron head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: CA Estudiantes 0 · draws 1 · Deportivo Moron 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | Deportivo Moron | 2-0 | CA Estudiantes | Primera Nacional |
| 2025-09-01 | Deportivo Moron | 1-1 | CA Estudiantes | Primera Nacional |
| 2025-04-26 | CA Estudiantes | 0-1 | Deportivo Moron | Primera Nacional |
Other Matchday 33 fixtures
- Deportivo Madryn vs Chaco For Ever — team news & stats 2026-10-11
- Defensores De Belgrano v Acassuso — match page 2026-10-11
- Atlanta v San Martin Tucuman — match page 2026-10-11
- Almirante Brown vs San Miguel 2026-10-11
- Patronato vs Club Atlético Güemes 2026-10-11
- Temperley v Nueva Chicago — match page 2026-10-11
- Gimnasia Jujuy v Gimnasia Y Tiro — match page 2026-10-11
- Atletico Mitre vs Colon Santa Fe 2026-10-11