Updated

Primera Nacional · Matchday 33

Almagro vs Chacarita Juniors

· Estadio Tres de Febrero, Jose Ingenieros

Full time2 – 1

Alin prediction was Almagro to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 0

15% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
AlmagroDrawChacarita Juniors

Almagro vs Chacarita Juniors: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceAlmagroDrawChacarita Juniors
Model42%33%25%
Market35%33%32%
Published37%33%30%
Edge+2%0%-2%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.17 vs 0.83.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Almagro vs Chacarita Juniors odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Almagro, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-05.

Opened 2.48Now 2.61 +0.13
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Almagro2.482.61+0.13
Draw2.812.80-0.01
Chacarita Juniors3.002.90-0.10

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Almagro and Chacarita Juniors expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.17Almagro
0.83Chacarita Juniors
Total expected goals
2.00
Attack rating (Almagro / Chacarita Juniors)
1.06 / 0.87
Defence rating (Almagro / Chacarita Juniors)
1.34 / 0.96

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Almagro vs Chacarita Juniors score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 14.8% 9.9% 4.7% 1.3% 0.3% 1 14.5% 14.5% 5.5% 1.5% 0.4% 2 9.3% 7.7% 3.2% 0.9% 0.2% 3 3.6% 3.0% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 4+ 1.4% 1.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: Almagro goals. Columns: Chacarita Juniors goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Almagro vs Chacarita Juniors goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 85%
Over 1.5 61%
Over 2.5 32%
Over 3.5 14%
Both teams to score
40%
No goals (0–0)
15%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Almagro vs Chacarita Juniors

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Almagro37%2.70
Draw33%3.04
Chacarita Juniors30%3.33
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.532%3.09
Under 2.568%1.48
Both teams to scoreYes40%2.49
No60%1.67
Double chance1X (Almagro or draw)70%1.43
12 (either side)67%1.49
X2 (draw or Chacarita Juniors)63%1.59
Handicap -1Almagro win by 2+19%5.30
Push (exactly one goal)24%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Almagro and Chacarita Juniors recent form

Almagro 2W 1D 3L
Chacarita Juniors 2W 0D 4L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Almagro at home

Record (W-D-L)
6-4-6
Win rate
38%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
0.88
Clean sheets
6 of 16
  • They have won 10 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
  • They have kept 9 clean sheets in 32 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 13 of 32 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).

Chacarita Juniors away

Record (W-D-L)
1-3-12
Win rate
6%
Goals for / match
0.44
Goals against / match
1.38
Clean sheets
2 of 16
  • They have won 9 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
  • They average 1.1 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
  • They have kept 10 clean sheets in 32 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 16 of 32 matches.
  • 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Almagro at home only, Chacarita Juniors away only.

Almagro vs Chacarita Juniors head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Almagro 4 · draws 1 · Chacarita Juniors 5.

AlmagroDrawsChacarita Juniors
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-24Chacarita Juniors1-0AlmagroPrimera Nacional
2022-04-02Almagro1-3Chacarita JuniorsPrimera Nacional
2021-01-12Almagro0-2Chacarita JuniorsPrimera Nacional
2020-03-17Chacarita Juniors1-2AlmagroPrimera Nacional
2019-09-21Almagro0-0Chacarita JuniorsPrimera Nacional
2018-08-28Almagro1-0Chacarita JuniorsPrimera Nacional
2017-06-03Chacarita Juniors3-0AlmagroPrimera Nacional
2016-11-08Almagro3-0Chacarita JuniorsPrimera Nacional
2014-05-03Almagro2-1Chacarita JuniorsPrimera B Metropolitana
2013-11-08Chacarita Juniors1-0AlmagroPrimera B Metropolitana

Other Matchday 33 fixtures

Before and after this match