Almagro vs Chacarita Juniors: model vs market
| Source | Almagro | Draw | Chacarita Juniors |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42% | 33% | 25% |
| Market | 38% | 32% | 30% |
| Published | 39% | 33% | 29% |
| Edge | +5% | 0% | -5% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.17 vs 0.83.
- The market prices Almagro below the model: +4.6 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.75, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
Almagro vs Chacarita Juniors odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Almagro, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-05.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Almagro | 2.48 | 2.40 | -0.08 |
| Draw | 2.81 | 2.80 | -0.01 |
| Chacarita Juniors | 3.00 | 3.04 | +0.04 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Almagro and Chacarita Juniors expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.00
- Attack rating (Almagro / Chacarita Juniors)
- 1.06 / 0.87
- Defence rating (Almagro / Chacarita Juniors)
- 1.34 / 0.96
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Almagro vs Chacarita Juniors score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Almagro goals. Columns: Chacarita Juniors goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Almagro vs Chacarita Juniors goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 40%
- No goals (0–0)
- 15%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Almagro vs Chacarita Juniors
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Almagro | 39% | 2.57 |
| Draw | 33% | 3.08 | |
| Chacarita Juniors | 29% | 3.50 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 32% | 3.09 |
| Under 2.5 | 68% | 1.48 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 40% | 2.49 |
| No | 60% | 1.67 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Almagro or draw) | 71% | 1.40 |
| 12 (either side) | 67% | 1.48 | |
| X2 (draw or Chacarita Juniors) | 61% | 1.64 | |
| Handicap -1 | Almagro win by 2+ | 19% | 5.30 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Almagro and Chacarita Juniors recent form
Almagro
2W 1D 3L
Chacarita Juniors
2W 0D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Almagro at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-4-6
- Win rate
- 38%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.88
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 16
- They have won 9 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 13 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).
Chacarita Juniors away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-3-12
- Win rate
- 6%
- Goals for / match
- 0.44
- Goals against / match
- 1.38
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 16
- They have won 8 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They average 1.1 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 16 of 31 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Almagro at home only, Chacarita Juniors away only.
Almagro vs Chacarita Juniors head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Almagro 0 · draws 0 · Chacarita Juniors 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | Chacarita Juniors | 1-0 | Almagro | Primera Nacional |
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