Deportivo Madryn vs Chaco For Ever: model vs market
| Source | Deportivo Madryn | Draw | Chaco For Ever |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 55% | 30% | 15% |
| Market | 52% | 29% | 19% |
| Published | 53% | 29% | 18% |
| Edge | +3% | +1% | -4% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.42 vs 0.63.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Deportivo Madryn below the model: +2.8 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.83, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
Deportivo Madryn vs Chaco For Ever odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Deportivo Madryn, 3 snapshots since 2026-10-05.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Madryn | 1.75 | 1.75 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.20 | 3.20 | +0.00 |
| Chaco For Ever | 4.85 | 4.85 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Deportivo Madryn and Chaco For Ever expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.05
- Attack rating (Deportivo Madryn / Chaco For Ever)
- 1.52 / 1.18
- Defence rating (Deportivo Madryn / Chaco For Ever)
- 0.74 / 0.81
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Deportivo Madryn vs Chaco For Ever score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Deportivo Madryn goals. Columns: Chaco For Ever goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Deportivo Madryn vs Chaco For Ever goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 36%
- No goals (0–0)
- 14%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Deportivo Madryn vs Chaco For Ever
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Deportivo Madryn | 53% | 1.88 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.46 | |
| Chaco For Ever | 18% | 5.56 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 34% | 2.98 |
| Under 2.5 | 66% | 1.51 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 36% | 2.75 |
| No | 64% | 1.57 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Deportivo Madryn or draw) | 82% | 1.22 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.41 | |
| X2 (draw or Chaco For Ever) | 47% | 2.13 | |
| Handicap -1 | Deportivo Madryn win by 2+ | 29% | 3.50 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 27% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Deportivo Madryn and Chaco For Ever recent form
Deportivo Madryn
3W 1D 2L
Chaco For Ever
2W 3D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Deportivo Madryn at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 9-5-2
- Win rate
- 56%
- Goals for / match
- 1.69
- Goals against / match
- 0.69
- Clean sheets
- 7 of 16
- They have won 13 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 31 matches.
Chaco For Ever away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-5-9
- Win rate
- 12%
- Goals for / match
- 0.56
- Goals against / match
- 1.19
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 16
- They have won 9 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Deportivo Madryn at home only, Chaco For Ever away only.
Deportivo Madryn vs Chaco For Ever head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Deportivo Madryn 1 · draws 0 · Chaco For Ever 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | Chaco For Ever | 1-2 | Deportivo Madryn | Primera Nacional |
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