Acassuso vs Deportivo Madryn preview
In the match between Acassuso and Deportivo Madryn, the 1X2 probabilities show both teams at 34%, while a draw sits at 32%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a 12% chance according to our model. Acassuso's expected goals stand at 1.02, slightly higher than Deportivo Madryn's 0.95, indicating a closely matched encounter.
Despite the even odds, factors such as recent form could influence the outcome. Acassuso has a recent record of W-L-W-W-L-L, while Deportivo Madryn shows L-W-D-W-L-W. With a 41% chance for both teams to score and only a 32% likelihood of Over 2.5 goals, the match may lean towards a low-scoring affair.
Acassuso vs Deportivo Madryn: model vs market
| Source | Acassuso | Draw | Deportivo Madryn |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 35% | 34% | 31% |
| Market | 33% | 32% | 35% |
| Published | 34% | 32% | 34% |
| Edge | +2% | +2% | -4% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.74, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Acassuso vs Deportivo Madryn odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Deportivo Madryn, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Acassuso | 3.00 | 2.77 | -0.23 |
| Draw | 2.90 | 2.88 | -0.02 |
| Deportivo Madryn | 2.57 | 2.61 | +0.04 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Acassuso and Deportivo Madryn expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.98
- Attack rating (Acassuso / Deportivo Madryn)
- 1.01 / 1.45
- Defence rating (Acassuso / Deportivo Madryn)
- 0.92 / 0.88
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Acassuso vs Deportivo Madryn score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Acassuso goals. Columns: Deportivo Madryn goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Acassuso vs Deportivo Madryn goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 41%
- No goals (0–0)
- 15%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Acassuso vs Deportivo Madryn
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Acassuso | 34% | 2.98 |
| Draw | 32% | 3.10 | |
| Deportivo Madryn | 34% | 2.93 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 32% | 3.16 |
| Under 2.5 | 68% | 1.46 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 41% | 2.46 |
| No | 59% | 1.69 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Acassuso or draw) | 66% | 1.52 |
| 12 (either side) | 68% | 1.48 | |
| X2 (draw or Deportivo Madryn) | 66% | 1.50 | |
| Handicap -1 | Deportivo Madryn win by 2+ | 12% | 8.45 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Acassuso and Deportivo Madryn recent form
Acassuso
3W 0D 3L
Deportivo Madryn
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Acassuso at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-3-8
- Win rate
- 31%
- Goals for / match
- 0.81
- Goals against / match
- 0.94
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 16
- They have won 8 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 18 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Deportivo Madryn away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-6-5
- Win rate
- 31%
- Goals for / match
- 1.19
- Goals against / match
- 1.06
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 16
- They have won 14 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 33 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Acassuso at home only, Deportivo Madryn away only.
Acassuso vs Deportivo Madryn head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Acassuso 0 · draws 1 · Deportivo Madryn 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-31 | Deportivo Madryn | 0-0 | Acassuso | Primera Nacional |
Other Matchday 34 fixtures
- Atletico DE Rafaela vs Quilmes — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Gimnasia Y Tiro vs Atlanta — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Chacarita Juniors v Deportivo Maipu — match page 2026-10-17
- Agropecuario v Colegiales — match page 2026-10-17
- San Miguel vs Ciudad de Bolívar — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Tristan Suarez vs Patronato — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Colon Santa Fe vs Almirante Brown — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Deportivo Moron vs Atletico Mitre 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- Acassuso, previous: Defensores De Belgrano v Acassuso analysis
- Deportivo Madryn, previous: Deportivo Madryn vs Chaco For Ever: odds and pick