San Miguel vs Ciudad de Bolívar preview
In the Primera Nacional fixture, San Miguel has a 39% chance to win against Ciudad de Bolívar, who has a 27% chance. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, predicted at 13%. San Miguel's recent form shows 3 draws and 3 losses, while Ciudad de Bolívar has won 3 of their last 5 matches.
Both teams have similar expected goals, with San Miguel at 0.92 and Ciudad de Bolívar at 0.93. The model suggests a 28% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 38% chance for both teams to score. However, if San Miguel's form does not improve or if Ciudad de Bolívar continues their winning streak, the predictions could change.
San Miguel vs Ciudad de Bolívar: model vs market
| Source | San Miguel | Draw | Ciudad de Bolívar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 32% | 35% | 33% |
| Market | 41% | 34% | 26% |
| Published | 39% | 34% | 27% |
| Edge | -9% | +1% | +7% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.30, recorded — the top price across the 6 books we record, each at its own last update.
San Miguel and Ciudad de Bolívar expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.86
- Attack rating (San Miguel / Ciudad de Bolívar)
- 0.83 / 0.93
- Defence rating (San Miguel / Ciudad de Bolívar)
- 1.42 / 0.96
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
San Miguel vs Ciudad de Bolívar score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: San Miguel goals. Columns: Ciudad de Bolívar goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
San Miguel vs Ciudad de Bolívar goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 38%
- No goals (0–0)
- 17%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for San Miguel vs Ciudad de Bolívar
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | San Miguel | 39% | 2.58 |
| Draw | 34% | 2.95 | |
| Ciudad de Bolívar | 27% | 3.65 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 28% | 3.52 |
| Under 2.5 | 72% | 1.40 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 38% | 2.64 |
| No | 62% | 1.61 | |
| Double chance | 1X (San Miguel or draw) | 73% | 1.38 |
| 12 (either side) | 66% | 1.51 | |
| X2 (draw or Ciudad de Bolívar) | 61% | 1.63 | |
| Handicap -1 | San Miguel win by 2+ | 12% | 8.39 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
San Miguel and Ciudad de Bolívar recent form
San Miguel
0W 3D 3L
Ciudad de Bolívar
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
San Miguel at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-5-6
- Win rate
- 31%
- Goals for / match
- 0.88
- Goals against / match
- 0.94
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 16
- They have won 6 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 12 of 33 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
Ciudad de Bolívar away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-5-5
- Win rate
- 38%
- Goals for / match
- 0.75
- Goals against / match
- 0.81
- Clean sheets
- 8 of 16
- They have won 12 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 16 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).
League matches this season before kick-off: San Miguel at home only, Ciudad de Bolívar away only.
San Miguel vs Ciudad de Bolívar head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: San Miguel 0 · draws 1 · Ciudad de Bolívar 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-31 | Ciudad de Bolívar | 1-1 | San Miguel | Primera Nacional |
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Before and after this match
- San Miguel, previous: Almirante Brown v San Miguel analysis
- Ciudad de Bolívar, previous: Ciudad de Bolívar vs San Telmo prediction