Ciudad de Bolívar vs San Telmo Prediction & Betting Tips 11/10/2026

Ciudad de Bolívar vs San Telmo: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Ciudad de Bolívar	Draw	San Telmo
Model	44%	31%	25%
Market	50%	29%	21%
Published	49%	30%	22%
Edge	-6%	+1%	+4%

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.30 vs 0.92.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.88, recorded 2026-10-06 — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.

Ciudad de Bolívar vs San Telmo odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Ciudad de Bolívar, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-06.

Opened 1.83Now 1.83 +0.00

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Ciudad de Bolívar	1.83	1.83	+0.00
Draw	3.10	3.10	+0.00
San Telmo	4.45	4.45	+0.00

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Ciudad de Bolívar and San Telmo expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.30Ciudad de Bolívar

0.92San Telmo

Total expected goals: 2.22
Attack rating (Ciudad de Bolívar / San Telmo): 0.92 / 1.18
Defence rating (Ciudad de Bolívar / San Telmo): 1.09 / 1.24

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Ciudad de Bolívar vs San Telmo score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 12.2% 8.7% 4.6% 1.4% 0.4% 1 12.9% 14.3% 5.9% 1.8% 0.5% 2 9.2% 8.4% 3.9% 1.2% 0.3% 3 4.0% 3.7% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1% 4+ 1.7% 1.6% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1%

Rows: Ciudad de Bolívar goals. Columns: San Telmo goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Ciudad de Bolívar vs San Telmo goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 88%

Over 1.5 66%

Over 2.5 38%

Over 3.5 18%

Both teams to score: 45%
No goals (0–0): 12%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Ciudad de Bolívar vs San Telmo

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Ciudad de Bolívar	49%	2.06
	Draw	30%	3.35
	San Telmo	22%	4.62
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	38%	2.62
	Under 2.5	62%	1.62
Both teams to score	Yes	45%	2.23
	No	55%	1.82
Double chance	1X (Ciudad de Bolívar or draw)	78%	1.28
	12 (either side)	70%	1.43
	X2 (draw or San Telmo)	51%	1.94
Handicap -1	Ciudad de Bolívar win by 2+	21%	4.76
	Push (exactly one goal)	23%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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Ciudad de Bolívar and San Telmo recent form

Ciudad de Bolívar 3W 1D 2L

San Telmo 3W 1D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Ciudad de Bolívar at home

Record (W-D-L): 5-7-4
Win rate: 31%
Goals for / match: 0.94
Goals against / match: 0.94
Clean sheets: 7 of 16

They have won 10 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
They have kept 14 clean sheets in 31 matches.
They have failed to score in 11 of 31 matches.
Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

San Telmo away

Record (W-D-L): 3-6-7
Win rate: 19%
Goals for / match: 0.69
Goals against / match: 1.12
Clean sheets: 5 of 16

They have won 8 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
They have kept 12 clean sheets in 31 matches.
They have failed to score in 15 of 31 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Ciudad de Bolívar at home only, San Telmo away only.

Ciudad de Bolívar vs San Telmo head-to-head

Last 1 meetings: Ciudad de Bolívar 1 · draws 0 · San Telmo 0.

100% 0% 0%

Ciudad de BolívarDrawsSan Telmo

Previous meetings
Date	Home	Score	Away	Competition
2026-05-23	San Telmo	0-1	Ciudad de Bolívar	Primera Nacional

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Prediction snapshot Ciudad de Bolívar to win Predicted score 1 – 0 C Bet on Ciudad de Bolívar