Temperley vs Nueva Chicago: model vs market
| Source | Temperley | Draw | Nueva Chicago |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 68% | 25% | 7% |
| Market | 52% | 29% | 18% |
| Published | 56% | 28% | 16% |
| Edge | +15% | -4% | -11% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.61 vs 0.37.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Temperley below the model: +15.3 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.78, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
Temperley vs Nueva Chicago odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Temperley, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-06.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Temperley | 1.75 | 1.75 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.10 | 3.10 | +0.00 |
| Nueva Chicago | 5.00 | 5.00 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Temperley and Nueva Chicago expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.98
- Attack rating (Temperley / Nueva Chicago)
- 1.44 / 0.64
- Defence rating (Temperley / Nueva Chicago)
- 0.83 / 0.97
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Temperley vs Nueva Chicago score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Temperley goals. Columns: Nueva Chicago goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Temperley vs Nueva Chicago goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 26%
- No goals (0–0)
- 15%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Temperley vs Nueva Chicago
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Temperley | 56% | 1.78 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.52 | |
| Nueva Chicago | 16% | 6.43 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 32% | 3.14 |
| Under 2.5 | 68% | 1.47 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 26% | 3.88 |
| No | 74% | 1.35 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Temperley or draw) | 84% | 1.18 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.40 | |
| X2 (draw or Nueva Chicago) | 44% | 2.28 | |
| Handicap -1 | Temperley win by 2+ | 39% | 2.57 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 29% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Temperley and Nueva Chicago recent form
Temperley
4W 1D 1L
Nueva Chicago
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Temperley at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 11-3-2
- Win rate
- 69%
- Goals for / match
- 1.88
- Goals against / match
- 1.12
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 16
- They have won 14 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 4 penalties (50%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Nueva Chicago away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-1-11
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 0.44
- Goals against / match
- 1.19
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 16
- They have won 9 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They average 1.1 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 16 of 31 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Temperley at home only, Nueva Chicago away only.
Temperley vs Nueva Chicago head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Temperley 2 · draws 1 · Nueva Chicago 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-23 | Nueva Chicago | 1-1 | Temperley | Primera Nacional |
| 2025-10-05 | Temperley | 3-0 | Nueva Chicago | Primera Nacional |
| 2025-06-02 | Nueva Chicago | 0-1 | Temperley | Primera Nacional |
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