Gimnasia Jujuy vs Gimnasia Y Tiro: model vs market
| Source | Gimnasia Jujuy | Draw | Gimnasia Y Tiro |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 39% | 31% | 30% |
| Market | 50% | 29% | 21% |
| Published | 47% | 29% | 23% |
| Edge | -11% | +3% | +8% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.85, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
Gimnasia Jujuy vs Gimnasia Y Tiro odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Gimnasia Jujuy, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-06.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gimnasia Jujuy | 1.83 | 1.83 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.20 | 3.20 | +0.00 |
| Gimnasia Y Tiro | 4.33 | 4.33 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Gimnasia Jujuy and Gimnasia Y Tiro expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.22
- Attack rating (Gimnasia Jujuy / Gimnasia Y Tiro)
- 1.39 / 1.00
- Defence rating (Gimnasia Jujuy / Gimnasia Y Tiro)
- 1.43 / 0.75
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Gimnasia Jujuy vs Gimnasia Y Tiro score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Gimnasia Jujuy goals. Columns: Gimnasia Y Tiro goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Gimnasia Jujuy vs Gimnasia Y Tiro goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 46%
- No goals (0–0)
- 12%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Gimnasia Jujuy vs Gimnasia Y Tiro
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Gimnasia Jujuy | 47% | 2.11 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.41 | |
| Gimnasia Y Tiro | 23% | 4.29 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 38% | 2.61 |
| Under 2.5 | 62% | 1.62 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46% | 2.17 |
| No | 54% | 1.85 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Gimnasia Jujuy or draw) | 77% | 1.30 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.42 | |
| X2 (draw or Gimnasia Y Tiro) | 53% | 1.90 | |
| Handicap -1 | Gimnasia Jujuy win by 2+ | 17% | 5.76 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Gimnasia Jujuy and Gimnasia Y Tiro recent form
Gimnasia Jujuy
2W 3D 1L
Gimnasia Y Tiro
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Gimnasia Jujuy at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 11-4-1
- Win rate
- 69%
- Goals for / match
- 1.88
- Goals against / match
- 0.81
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 16
- They have won 15 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
Gimnasia Y Tiro away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-3-8
- Win rate
- 31%
- Goals for / match
- 0.94
- Goals against / match
- 1.19
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 16
- They have won 13 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Gimnasia Jujuy at home only, Gimnasia Y Tiro away only.
Gimnasia Jujuy vs Gimnasia Y Tiro head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Gimnasia Jujuy 0 · draws 1 · Gimnasia Y Tiro 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | Gimnasia Y Tiro | 1-1 | Gimnasia Jujuy | Primera Nacional |
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