Atletico Mitre vs Colon Santa Fe: model vs market
| Source | Atletico Mitre | Draw | Colon Santa Fe |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 28% | 35% | 37% |
| Market | 35% | 33% | 32% |
| Published | 33% | 33% | 34% |
| Edge | -7% | +2% | +5% |
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Colon Santa Fe below the model: +4.8 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 3.00, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
Atletico Mitre vs Colon Santa Fe odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Colon Santa Fe, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-06.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Mitre | 2.60 | 2.60 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 2.75 | 2.75 | +0.00 |
| Colon Santa Fe | 2.80 | 2.80 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Atletico Mitre and Colon Santa Fe expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.83
- Attack rating (Atletico Mitre / Colon Santa Fe)
- 0.87 / 1.17
- Defence rating (Atletico Mitre / Colon Santa Fe)
- 1.21 / 0.83
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Atletico Mitre vs Colon Santa Fe score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Atletico Mitre goals. Columns: Colon Santa Fe goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Atletico Mitre vs Colon Santa Fe goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 37%
- No goals (0–0)
- 17%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Atletico Mitre vs Colon Santa Fe
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atletico Mitre | 33% | 3.03 |
| Draw | 33% | 2.99 | |
| Colon Santa Fe | 34% | 2.98 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 28% | 3.59 |
| Under 2.5 | 72% | 1.39 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 37% | 2.70 |
| No | 63% | 1.59 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Atletico Mitre or draw) | 66% | 1.50 |
| 12 (either side) | 67% | 1.50 | |
| X2 (draw or Colon Santa Fe) | 67% | 1.49 | |
| Handicap -1 | Colon Santa Fe win by 2+ | 15% | 6.77 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Atletico Mitre and Colon Santa Fe recent form
Atletico Mitre
1W 3D 2L
Colon Santa Fe
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Atletico Mitre at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-6-5
- Win rate
- 31%
- Goals for / match
- 1.06
- Goals against / match
- 1.12
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 16
- They have won 6 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 12 of 31 matches.
Colon Santa Fe away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-6-6
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 0.88
- Goals against / match
- 1.06
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 16
- They have won 13 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Atletico Mitre at home only, Colon Santa Fe away only.
Atletico Mitre vs Colon Santa Fe head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Atletico Mitre 1 · draws 1 · Colon Santa Fe 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | Colon Santa Fe | 1-1 | Atletico Mitre | Primera Nacional |
| 2025-07-01 | Colon Santa Fe | 0-1 | Atletico Mitre | Primera Nacional |
| 2025-02-23 | Atletico Mitre | 0-1 | Colon Santa Fe | Primera Nacional |
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