Central Norte vs Ferro Carril Oeste: model vs market
| Source | Central Norte | Draw | Ferro Carril Oeste |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 35% | 40% | 25% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 35% | 40% | 25% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Central Norte and Ferro Carril Oeste expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.42
- Attack rating (Central Norte / Ferro Carril Oeste)
- 0.72 / 1.04
- Defence rating (Central Norte / Ferro Carril Oeste)
- 0.85 / 0.95
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Central Norte vs Ferro Carril Oeste score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Central Norte goals. Columns: Ferro Carril Oeste goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Central Norte vs Ferro Carril Oeste goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 27%
- No goals (0–0)
- 25%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Central Norte vs Ferro Carril Oeste
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Central Norte | 35% | 2.87 |
| Draw | 40% | 2.48 | |
| Ferro Carril Oeste | 25% | 4.02 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 17% | 5.88 |
| Under 2.5 | 83% | 1.21 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 27% | 3.76 |
| No | 73% | 1.36 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Central Norte or draw) | 75% | 1.33 |
| 12 (either side) | 60% | 1.67 | |
| X2 (draw or Ferro Carril Oeste) | 65% | 1.54 | |
| Handicap -1 | Central Norte win by 2+ | 12% | 8.54 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Central Norte and Ferro Carril Oeste recent form
Central Norte
0W 5D 1L
Ferro Carril Oeste
2W 3D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Central Norte at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-9-3
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 0.69
- Goals against / match
- 0.62
- Clean sheets
- 8 of 16
- They have won 6 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 16 of 31 matches.
Ferro Carril Oeste away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 9-5-2
- Win rate
- 56%
- Goals for / match
- 1.19
- Goals against / match
- 0.81
- Clean sheets
- 9 of 16
- They have won 18 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 15 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Central Norte at home only, Ferro Carril Oeste away only.
Central Norte vs Ferro Carril Oeste head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Central Norte 0 · draws 0 · Ferro Carril Oeste 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | Ferro Carril Oeste | 1-0 | Central Norte | Primera Nacional |
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