Deportivo Maipu vs San Martin S.J.: model vs market
| Source | Deportivo Maipu | Draw | San Martin S.J. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 55% | 30% | 15% |
| Market | 41% | 31% | 28% |
| Published | 44% | 31% | 25% |
| Edge | +15% | -1% | -13% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.42 vs 0.63.
- The market prices Deportivo Maipu below the model: +14.6 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.50, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
Deportivo Maipu vs San Martin S.J. odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Deportivo Maipu, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-06.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Maipu | 2.20 | 2.20 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 2.89 | 2.89 | +0.00 |
| San Martin S.J. | 3.15 | 3.15 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Deportivo Maipu and San Martin S.J. expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.05
- Attack rating (Deportivo Maipu / San Martin S.J.)
- 1.12 / 1.08
- Defence rating (Deportivo Maipu / San Martin S.J.)
- 0.82 / 1.11
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Deportivo Maipu vs San Martin S.J. score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Deportivo Maipu goals. Columns: San Martin S.J. goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Deportivo Maipu vs San Martin S.J. goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 37%
- No goals (0–0)
- 14%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Deportivo Maipu vs San Martin S.J.
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Deportivo Maipu | 44% | 2.26 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.27 | |
| San Martin S.J. | 25% | 3.98 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 34% | 2.97 |
| Under 2.5 | 66% | 1.51 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 37% | 2.74 |
| No | 63% | 1.58 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Deportivo Maipu or draw) | 75% | 1.34 |
| 12 (either side) | 69% | 1.44 | |
| X2 (draw or San Martin S.J.) | 56% | 1.80 | |
| Handicap -1 | Deportivo Maipu win by 2+ | 29% | 3.50 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 27% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Deportivo Maipu and San Martin S.J. recent form
Deportivo Maipu
2W 3D 1L
San Martin S.J.
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Deportivo Maipu at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 9-4-3
- Win rate
- 56%
- Goals for / match
- 1.19
- Goals against / match
- 0.62
- Clean sheets
- 8 of 16
- They have won 12 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 31 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
San Martin S.J. away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-4-8
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 0.81
- Goals against / match
- 1.19
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 16
- They have won 12 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Deportivo Maipu at home only, San Martin S.J. away only.
Deportivo Maipu vs San Martin S.J. head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Deportivo Maipu 0 · draws 0 · San Martin S.J. 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-23 | San Martin S.J. | 2-1 | Deportivo Maipu | Primera Nacional |
Other Matchday 33 fixtures
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- CA Estudiantes vs Deportivo Moron 2026-10-11
- Atlanta v San Martin Tucuman — match page 2026-10-11
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- Temperley v Nueva Chicago — match page 2026-10-11
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- Atletico Mitre vs Colon Santa Fe 2026-10-11
- Central Norte vs Ferro Carril Oeste — team news & stats 2026-10-11