Colon Santa Fe vs Almirante Brown preview
In the match between Colon Santa Fe and Almirante Brown, the 1X2 probabilities show Colon Santa Fe at 52%, with a most likely scoreline of 1-0 at 19%. Almirante Brown has a lower chance of winning at 16%, which suggests Colon Santa Fe is favored to take the points.
However, the confidence grade is C, indicating uncertainty. Both teams to score stands at 32%, while Over 2.5 goals is only 27%. Recent form shows Colon Santa Fe with mixed results (W-D-W-L-L-L) and Almirante Brown struggling (L-L-L-D-D-W). These factors could lead to a different outcome than predicted.
Colon Santa Fe vs Almirante Brown: model vs market
| Source | Colon Santa Fe | Draw | Almirante Brown |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 51% | 34% | 15% |
| Market | 55% | 29% | 16% |
| Published | 54% | 30% | 16% |
| Edge | -3% | +5% | -2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.16 vs 0.50.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.73, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Colon Santa Fe vs Almirante Brown odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Colon Santa Fe, 10 snapshots since 2026-10-13.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Colon Santa Fe | 1.75 | 1.69 | -0.06 |
| Draw | 3.12 | 3.17 | +0.05 |
| Almirante Brown | 4.92 | 5.61 | +0.68 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Colon Santa Fe and Almirante Brown expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.66
- Attack rating (Colon Santa Fe / Almirante Brown)
- 1.08 / 0.93
- Defence rating (Colon Santa Fe / Almirante Brown)
- 0.75 / 0.94
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Colon Santa Fe vs Almirante Brown score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Colon Santa Fe goals. Columns: Almirante Brown goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Colon Santa Fe vs Almirante Brown goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 28%
- No goals (0–0)
- 20%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Colon Santa Fe vs Almirante Brown
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Colon Santa Fe | 54% | 1.86 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.30 | |
| Almirante Brown | 16% | 6.25 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 23% | 4.32 |
| Under 2.5 | 77% | 1.30 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 28% | 3.57 |
| No | 72% | 1.39 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Colon Santa Fe or draw) | 84% | 1.19 |
| 12 (either side) | 70% | 1.43 | |
| X2 (draw or Almirante Brown) | 46% | 2.16 | |
| Handicap -1 | Colon Santa Fe win by 2+ | 23% | 4.29 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 28% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Colon Santa Fe and Almirante Brown recent form
Colon Santa Fe
2W 2D 2L
Almirante Brown
0W 3D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Colon Santa Fe at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 10-4-2
- Win rate
- 62%
- Goals for / match
- 1.56
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 10 of 16
- They have won 14 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 15 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Almirante Brown away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-6-7
- Win rate
- 19%
- Goals for / match
- 0.62
- Goals against / match
- 0.88
- Clean sheets
- 8 of 16
- They have won 12 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 18 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 14 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Colon Santa Fe at home only, Almirante Brown away only.
Colon Santa Fe vs Almirante Brown head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Colon Santa Fe 2 · draws 2 · Almirante Brown 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-30 | Almirante Brown | 1-1 | Colon Santa Fe | Primera Nacional |
| 2025-07-13 | Colon Santa Fe | 1-0 | Almirante Brown | Primera Nacional |
| 2025-03-10 | Almirante Brown | 2-0 | Colon Santa Fe | Primera Nacional |
| 2024-07-07 | Almirante Brown | 0-0 | Colon Santa Fe | Primera Nacional |
| 2024-02-18 | Colon Santa Fe | 2-1 | Almirante Brown | Primera Nacional |
Other Matchday 34 fixtures
- Atletico DE Rafaela vs Quilmes — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Gimnasia Y Tiro vs Atlanta — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Chacarita Juniors v Deportivo Maipu — match page 2026-10-17
- Agropecuario v Colegiales — match page 2026-10-17
- Acassuso vs Deportivo Madryn 2026-10-17
- San Miguel vs Ciudad de Bolívar — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Tristan Suarez vs Patronato — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Deportivo Moron vs Atletico Mitre 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- Colon Santa Fe, previous: Atletico Mitre v Colon Santa Fe analysis
- Almirante Brown, previous: Almirante Brown v San Miguel analysis