Gimnasia Y Tiro vs Atlanta preview
Gimnasia Y Tiro faces Atlanta with a 51% chance of winning compared to Atlanta's 17%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which occurs 18% of the time according to our model. Gimnasia Y Tiro has an expected goals figure of 1.25, while Atlanta's is just 0.62.
However, the match could see a different outcome if Atlanta continues its recent strong form, which includes 4 wins in the last 5 matches. The probabilities for Over 2.5 goals stand at 29%, and both teams to score is at 34%. Given the recent head-to-head results, where Atlanta has 1 win and 2 draws against Gimnasia Y Tiro, surprises are possible.
Gimnasia Y Tiro vs Atlanta: model vs market
| Source | Gimnasia Y Tiro | Draw | Atlanta |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 51% | 32% | 17% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 51% | 32% | 17% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.25 vs 0.62.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Gimnasia Y Tiro and Atlanta expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.87
- Attack rating (Gimnasia Y Tiro / Atlanta)
- 1.00 / 1.15
- Defence rating (Gimnasia Y Tiro / Atlanta)
- 0.75 / 1.09
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Gimnasia Y Tiro vs Atlanta score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Gimnasia Y Tiro goals. Columns: Atlanta goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Gimnasia Y Tiro vs Atlanta goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 34%
- No goals (0–0)
- 17%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Gimnasia Y Tiro vs Atlanta
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Gimnasia Y Tiro | 51% | 1.97 |
| Draw | 32% | 3.11 | |
| Atlanta | 17% | 5.87 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 29% | 3.47 |
| Under 2.5 | 71% | 1.40 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 34% | 2.94 |
| No | 66% | 1.52 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Gimnasia Y Tiro or draw) | 83% | 1.21 |
| 12 (either side) | 68% | 1.47 | |
| X2 (draw or Atlanta) | 49% | 2.03 | |
| Handicap -1 | Gimnasia Y Tiro win by 2+ | 24% | 4.15 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 27% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Gimnasia Y Tiro and Atlanta recent form
Gimnasia Y Tiro
3W 1D 2L
Atlanta
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Gimnasia Y Tiro at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-6-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.06
- Goals against / match
- 0.56
- Clean sheets
- 9 of 16
- They have won 13 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Atlanta away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-2-7
- Win rate
- 44%
- Goals for / match
- 1.06
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 16
- They have won 16 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 15 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Gimnasia Y Tiro at home only, Atlanta away only.
Gimnasia Y Tiro vs Atlanta head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Gimnasia Y Tiro 0 · draws 2 · Atlanta 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-31 | Atlanta | 1-1 | Gimnasia Y Tiro | Primera Nacional |
| 2025-09-27 | Gimnasia Y Tiro | 2-2 | Atlanta | Primera Nacional |
| 2025-05-24 | Atlanta | 1-0 | Gimnasia Y Tiro | Primera Nacional |
Other Matchday 34 fixtures
Before and after this match
- Gimnasia Y Tiro, previous: Gimnasia Jujuy vs Gimnasia Y Tiro: odds and pick
- Atlanta, previous: Atlanta – San Martin Tucuman, 2026-10-11