Tristan Suarez vs Patronato preview
In the upcoming match between Tristan Suarez and Patronato, the 1X2 probabilities show Tristan Suarez at 50%, with a most likely scoreline of 1-0 at 24%. Tristan Suarez's expected goals stand at 1.01, while Patronato's is significantly lower at 0.38. This suggests that Tristan Suarez is favored to win, but the low expected goals for both teams indicates a potential for a low-scoring match.
However, both teams to score is only 21%, and Over 2.5 goals is at just 16%. This means that while Tristan Suarez is likely to win, if Patronato manages to score, it could change the dynamics of the game. The recent form shows Tristan Suarez has struggled with draws, which could impact their performance.
Tristan Suarez vs Patronato: model vs market
| Source | Tristan Suarez | Draw | Patronato |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 50% | 37% | 13% |
| Market | 51% | 31% | 18% |
| Published | 51% | 33% | 17% |
| Edge | 0% | +6% | -6% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.01 vs 0.37.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.91, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Tristan Suarez vs Patronato odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Tristan Suarez, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tristan Suarez | 1.81 | 1.81 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.00 | 2.94 | -0.06 |
| Patronato | 4.90 | 5.04 | +0.14 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Tristan Suarez and Patronato expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.39
- Attack rating (Tristan Suarez / Patronato)
- 0.91 / 1.19
- Defence rating (Tristan Suarez / Patronato)
- 0.44 / 0.96
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Tristan Suarez vs Patronato score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Tristan Suarez goals. Columns: Patronato goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Tristan Suarez vs Patronato goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 21%
- No goals (0–0)
- 26%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Tristan Suarez vs Patronato
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tristan Suarez | 51% | 1.98 |
| Draw | 33% | 3.06 | |
| Patronato | 17% | 5.96 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 16% | 6.12 |
| Under 2.5 | 84% | 1.20 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 21% | 4.80 |
| No | 79% | 1.26 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Tristan Suarez or draw) | 83% | 1.20 |
| 12 (either side) | 67% | 1.49 | |
| X2 (draw or Patronato) | 49% | 2.02 | |
| Handicap -1 | Tristan Suarez win by 2+ | 21% | 4.83 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 29% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Tristan Suarez and Patronato recent form
Tristan Suarez
1W 5D 0L
Patronato
2W 3D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Tristan Suarez at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-7-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.12
- Goals against / match
- 0.44
- Clean sheets
- 11 of 16
- They have won 15 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 23 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 13 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
Patronato away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-9-6
- Win rate
- 6%
- Goals for / match
- 0.44
- Goals against / match
- 1.06
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 16
- They have won 7 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 16 of 33 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Tristan Suarez at home only, Patronato away only.
Tristan Suarez vs Patronato head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Tristan Suarez 1 · draws 1 · Patronato 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-31 | Patronato | 1-1 | Tristan Suarez | Primera Nacional |
| 2025-07-06 | Patronato | 2-0 | Tristan Suarez | Primera Nacional |
| 2025-03-01 | Tristan Suarez | 2-0 | Patronato | Primera Nacional |
| 2024-07-07 | Patronato | 3-0 | Tristan Suarez | Primera Nacional |
| 2024-02-17 | Tristan Suarez | 0-1 | Patronato | Primera Nacional |
Other Matchday 34 fixtures
- Atletico DE Rafaela vs Quilmes — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Gimnasia Y Tiro vs Atlanta — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Chacarita Juniors v Deportivo Maipu — match page 2026-10-17
- Agropecuario v Colegiales — match page 2026-10-17
- Acassuso vs Deportivo Madryn 2026-10-17
- San Miguel vs Ciudad de Bolívar — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Colon Santa Fe vs Almirante Brown — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Deportivo Moron vs Atletico Mitre 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- Tristan Suarez, previous: Colegiales vs Tristan Suarez: odds and pick
- Patronato, previous: Patronato vs Club Atlético Güemes: odds and pick