Nueva Chicago vs Gimnasia Jujuy preview
In the Primera Nacional fixture, Nueva Chicago has a 39% chance to win against Gimnasia Jujuy, who sits at 30%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with an 11% probability. Both teams have shown mixed recent form, with Nueva Chicago at L-L-W-D-L-W and Gimnasia Jujuy at D-L-D-D-W-W.
While Nueva Chicago has a slight edge in the 1X2 probabilities, both teams to score stands at 47%, indicating a competitive match. The expected goals are close, with Nueva Chicago at 1.13 and Gimnasia Jujuy at 1.11. Factors like defensive resilience or a sudden change in form could affect the outcome, making the match unpredictable.
Nueva Chicago vs Gimnasia Jujuy: model vs market
| Source | Nueva Chicago | Draw | Gimnasia Jujuy |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 35% | 31% | 34% |
| Market | 41% | 31% | 27% |
| Published | 40% | 31% | 29% |
| Edge | -7% | 0% | +7% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.30, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Nueva Chicago vs Gimnasia Jujuy odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Nueva Chicago, 10 snapshots since 2026-10-13.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nueva Chicago | 2.29 | 2.23 | -0.06 |
| Draw | 2.95 | 2.94 | -0.02 |
| Gimnasia Jujuy | 3.15 | 3.40 | +0.25 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Nueva Chicago and Gimnasia Jujuy expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.24
- Attack rating (Nueva Chicago / Gimnasia Jujuy)
- 0.66 / 1.42
- Defence rating (Nueva Chicago / Gimnasia Jujuy)
- 1.10 / 1.49
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Nueva Chicago vs Gimnasia Jujuy score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Nueva Chicago goals. Columns: Gimnasia Jujuy goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Nueva Chicago vs Gimnasia Jujuy goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 47%
- No goals (0–0)
- 12%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Nueva Chicago vs Gimnasia Jujuy
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nueva Chicago | 40% | 2.52 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.18 | |
| Gimnasia Jujuy | 29% | 3.47 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 39% | 2.58 |
| Under 2.5 | 61% | 1.63 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47% | 2.14 |
| No | 53% | 1.88 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Nueva Chicago or draw) | 71% | 1.40 |
| 12 (either side) | 69% | 1.46 | |
| X2 (draw or Gimnasia Jujuy) | 60% | 1.66 | |
| Handicap -1 | Nueva Chicago win by 2+ | 15% | 6.82 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Nueva Chicago and Gimnasia Jujuy recent form
Nueva Chicago
2W 1D 3L
Gimnasia Jujuy
2W 3D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Nueva Chicago at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-8-3
- Win rate
- 31%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.69
- Clean sheets
- 7 of 16
- They have won 9 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 17 of 33 matches.
Gimnasia Jujuy away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-5-7
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.12
- Goals against / match
- 1.69
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 16
- They have won 15 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Nueva Chicago at home only, Gimnasia Jujuy away only.
Nueva Chicago vs Gimnasia Jujuy head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Nueva Chicago 3 · draws 3 · Gimnasia Jujuy 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-17 | Gimnasia Jujuy | 4-0 | Nueva Chicago | Primera Nacional |
| 2025-09-14 | Nueva Chicago | 1-0 | Gimnasia Jujuy | Primera Nacional |
| 2025-05-10 | Gimnasia Jujuy | 2-1 | Nueva Chicago | Primera Nacional |
| 2022-07-27 | Gimnasia Jujuy | 2-0 | Nueva Chicago | Primera Nacional |
| 2019-02-10 | Gimnasia Jujuy | 1-2 | Nueva Chicago | Primera Nacional |
| 2017-12-02 | Nueva Chicago | 1-1 | Gimnasia Jujuy | Primera Nacional |
| 2017-07-02 | Gimnasia Jujuy | 2-2 | Nueva Chicago | Primera Nacional |
| 2016-12-03 | Nueva Chicago | 0-1 | Gimnasia Jujuy | Primera Nacional |
| 2014-12-19 | Nueva Chicago | 1-0 | Gimnasia Jujuy | Primera Nacional |
| 2014-11-30 | Gimnasia Jujuy | 1-1 | Nueva Chicago | Primera Nacional |
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Before and after this match
- Nueva Chicago, previous: Temperley vs Nueva Chicago prediction
- Gimnasia Jujuy, previous: Gimnasia Jujuy vs Gimnasia Y Tiro: odds and pick