San Telmo vs Defensores De Belgrano preview
In the match between San Telmo and Defensores De Belgrano, the 1X2 probabilities show San Telmo at 35%, a draw at 37%, and Defensores De Belgrano at 28%. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, which has a 13% chance according to our model.
San Telmo has an expected goals figure of 1.48, while Defensores De Belgrano sits at 0.86. The model suggests there is a 41% chance of Over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance for both teams to score. However, recent form shows San Telmo with mixed results and Defensores De Belgrano also struggling for consistency, which could influence the outcome.
San Telmo vs Defensores De Belgrano: model vs market
| Source | San Telmo | Draw | Defensores De Belgrano |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 50% | 29% | 21% |
| Market | 28% | 42% | 30% |
| Published | 34% | 38% | 28% |
| Edge | +22% | -13% | -10% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.63, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
San Telmo vs Defensores De Belgrano odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Draw, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-13.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Telmo | 2.73 | 3.20 | +0.48 |
| Draw | 2.76 | 2.16 | -0.60 |
| Defensores De Belgrano | 2.73 | 2.96 | +0.23 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
San Telmo and Defensores De Belgrano expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.34
- Attack rating (San Telmo / Defensores De Belgrano)
- 1.04 / 0.97
- Defence rating (San Telmo / Defensores De Belgrano)
- 1.23 / 1.23
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
San Telmo vs Defensores De Belgrano score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: San Telmo goals. Columns: Defensores De Belgrano goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
San Telmo vs Defensores De Belgrano goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 46%
- No goals (0–0)
- 11%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for San Telmo vs Defensores De Belgrano
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | San Telmo | 34% | 2.97 |
| Draw | 38% | 2.60 | |
| Defensores De Belgrano | 28% | 3.58 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 41% | 2.41 |
| Under 2.5 | 59% | 1.71 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46% | 2.18 |
| No | 54% | 1.85 | |
| Double chance | 1X (San Telmo or draw) | 72% | 1.39 |
| 12 (either side) | 62% | 1.62 | |
| X2 (draw or Defensores De Belgrano) | 66% | 1.51 | |
| Handicap -1 | San Telmo win by 2+ | 26% | 3.82 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
San Telmo and Defensores De Belgrano recent form
San Telmo
3W 1D 2L
Defensores De Belgrano
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
San Telmo at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-4-6
- Win rate
- 38%
- Goals for / match
- 1.06
- Goals against / match
- 1.12
- Clean sheets
- 7 of 16
- They have won 9 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 16 of 33 matches.
Defensores De Belgrano away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-5-7
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 0.75
- Goals against / match
- 0.94
- Clean sheets
- 7 of 16
- They have won 8 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 15 of 33 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: San Telmo at home only, Defensores De Belgrano away only.
San Telmo vs Defensores De Belgrano head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: San Telmo 2 · draws 4 · Defensores De Belgrano 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-30 | Defensores De Belgrano | 1-0 | San Telmo | Primera Nacional |
| 2025-07-31 | Defensores De Belgrano | 1-2 | San Telmo | Primera Nacional |
| 2025-02-23 | San Telmo | 0-3 | Defensores De Belgrano | Primera Nacional |
| 2024-08-18 | San Telmo | 1-2 | Defensores De Belgrano | Primera Nacional |
| 2024-04-01 | Defensores De Belgrano | 0-1 | San Telmo | Primera Nacional |
| 2023-06-18 | Defensores De Belgrano | 2-0 | San Telmo | Primera Nacional |
| 2023-02-11 | San Telmo | 2-2 | Defensores De Belgrano | Primera Nacional |
| 2022-08-14 | Defensores De Belgrano | 0-0 | San Telmo | Primera Nacional |
| 2021-09-19 | San Telmo | 0-0 | Defensores De Belgrano | Primera Nacional |
| 2021-05-10 | Defensores De Belgrano | 0-0 | San Telmo | Primera Nacional |
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Before and after this match
- San Telmo, previous: Ciudad de Bolívar vs San Telmo prediction
- San Telmo, next: Deportivo Madryn vs San Telmo prediction
- Defensores De Belgrano, previous: Defensores De Belgrano v Acassuso analysis