Deportivo Madryn vs San Telmo preview
Deportivo Madryn faces San Telmo with a 67% chance of winning, while San Telmo has only a 10% chance. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 15% probability. Deportivo Madryn's expected goals stand at 1.87 compared to San Telmo's 0.58, indicating a significant difference in attacking potential.
However, the confidence grade is C, suggesting some uncertainty in the prediction. Although Over 2.5 goals has a 44% likelihood and both teams to score sits at 38%, the recent form shows Deportivo Madryn has struggled, with 2 wins in their last 5 matches. This inconsistency could impact the outcome of the match.
Deportivo Madryn vs San Telmo: model vs market
| Source | Deportivo Madryn | Draw | San Telmo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 67% | 23% | 10% |
| Market | 57% | 26% | 17% |
| Published | 60% | 25% | 15% |
| Edge | +10% | -3% | -7% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.86 vs 0.58.
- The market prices Deportivo Madryn below the model: +10.0 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.65, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
Deportivo Madryn vs San Telmo odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Deportivo Madryn, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-19.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Madryn | 1.60 | 1.59 | -0.01 |
| Draw | 3.42 | 3.50 | +0.08 |
| San Telmo | 5.16 | 5.50 | +0.34 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Deportivo Madryn and San Telmo expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.44
- Attack rating (Deportivo Madryn / San Telmo)
- 1.31 / 1.04
- Defence rating (Deportivo Madryn / San Telmo)
- 0.77 / 1.23
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Deportivo Madryn vs San Telmo score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Deportivo Madryn goals. Columns: San Telmo goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Deportivo Madryn vs San Telmo goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 38%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Deportivo Madryn vs San Telmo
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Deportivo Madryn | 60% | 1.67 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.96 | |
| San Telmo | 15% | 6.71 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 44% | 2.27 |
| Under 2.5 | 56% | 1.79 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 38% | 2.63 |
| No | 62% | 1.61 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Deportivo Madryn or draw) | 85% | 1.18 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or San Telmo) | 40% | 2.49 | |
| Handicap -1 | Deportivo Madryn win by 2+ | 42% | 2.41 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Deportivo Madryn and San Telmo recent form
Deportivo Madryn
2W 2D 2L
San Telmo
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Deportivo Madryn at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 9-5-3
- Win rate
- 53%
- Goals for / match
- 1.65
- Goals against / match
- 0.76
- Clean sheets
- 7 of 17
- They have won 14 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 33 matches.
San Telmo away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-6-8
- Win rate
- 18%
- Goals for / match
- 0.65
- Goals against / match
- 1.12
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 17
- They have won 9 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 16 of 33 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Deportivo Madryn at home only, San Telmo away only.
Deportivo Madryn vs San Telmo head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Deportivo Madryn 0 · draws 1 · San Telmo 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-07 | San Telmo | 0-0 | Deportivo Madryn | Primera Nacional |
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Before and after this match
- Deportivo Madryn, previous: Acassuso vs Deportivo Madryn prediction
- San Telmo, previous: San Telmo – Defensores De Belgrano, 2026-10-19