Almagro vs Tristan Suarez preview
In the fixture between Almagro and Tristan Suarez, the 1X2 probabilities show Tristan Suarez at 42% to win, compared to Almagro's 19%. The most likely scoreline from our model is 0-1, with a 21% chance. Almagro's expected goals are 0.52, while Tristan Suarez has 0.90, indicating they may have the edge in attacking potential.
Both teams to score has a low probability of 25%, and Over 2.5 goals is even lower at 17%. Almagro's recent form shows 2 wins in their last 6 matches, while Tristan Suarez has not lost in their last 6 games, with 3 wins and 3 draws. This recent performance could influence the outcome, making it important to consider the form alongside the statistics.
Almagro vs Tristan Suarez: model vs market
| Source | Almagro | Draw | Tristan Suarez |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 18% | 38% | 44% |
| Market | 21% | 32% | 47% |
| Published | 20% | 33% | 47% |
| Edge | -3% | +6% | -3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 0.97 vs 0.52.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.98, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
Almagro vs Tristan Suarez odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Tristan Suarez, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-19.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Almagro | 3.60 | 4.33 | +0.73 |
| Draw | 2.71 | 2.85 | +0.14 |
| Tristan Suarez | 2.20 | 1.91 | -0.29 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Almagro and Tristan Suarez expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.49
- Attack rating (Almagro / Tristan Suarez)
- 1.12 / 0.95
- Defence rating (Almagro / Tristan Suarez)
- 1.42 / 0.40
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Almagro vs Tristan Suarez score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Almagro goals. Columns: Tristan Suarez goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Almagro vs Tristan Suarez goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 26%
- No goals (0–0)
- 24%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Almagro vs Tristan Suarez
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Almagro | 20% | 4.95 |
| Draw | 33% | 3.01 | |
| Tristan Suarez | 47% | 2.15 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 19% | 5.32 |
| Under 2.5 | 81% | 1.23 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 26% | 3.81 |
| No | 74% | 1.36 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Almagro or draw) | 53% | 1.87 |
| 12 (either side) | 67% | 1.50 | |
| X2 (draw or Tristan Suarez) | 80% | 1.25 | |
| Handicap -1 | Tristan Suarez win by 2+ | 17% | 5.73 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 27% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Almagro and Tristan Suarez recent form
Almagro
2W 1D 3L
Tristan Suarez
2W 4D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Almagro at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-4-6
- Win rate
- 41%
- Goals for / match
- 1.06
- Goals against / match
- 0.88
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 17
- They have won 11 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 13 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).
Tristan Suarez away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-7-3
- Win rate
- 41%
- Goals for / match
- 0.82
- Goals against / match
- 0.47
- Clean sheets
- 12 of 17
- They have won 15 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 23 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 13 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Almagro at home only, Tristan Suarez away only.
Almagro vs Tristan Suarez head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Almagro 0 · draws 1 · Tristan Suarez 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-06 | Tristan Suarez | 0-0 | Almagro | Primera Nacional |
| 2025-06-21 | Almagro | 0-1 | Tristan Suarez | Primera Nacional |
| 2025-02-15 | Tristan Suarez | 2-1 | Almagro | Primera Nacional |
Other Matchday 35 fixtures
- Ferro Carril Oeste vs Chaco For Ever 2026-10-24
- Quilmes vs San Martin Tucuman — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Deportivo Madryn vs San Telmo 2026-10-24
- Colegiales v Atletico DE Rafaela — match page 2026-10-24
- Ciudad de Bolívar vs Colon Santa Fe — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- CA Estudiantes v Los Andes — match page 2026-10-25
- Almirante Brown vs Deportivo Moron 2026-10-25
- Patronato vs Agropecuario 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Almagro, previous: Club Atlético Güemes – Almagro, 2026-10-18
- Tristan Suarez, previous: Tristan Suarez vs Patronato: odds and pick