Patronato vs Agropecuario preview
In the upcoming match between Patronato and Agropecuario, the 1X2 probabilities show Patronato at 54%, with a most likely scoreline of 1-0 at 19%. Agropecuario has a lower chance of winning at 15%, which suggests Patronato is favored to secure the three points. However, the recent form of both teams could impact the outcome, as Patronato has drawn twice in their last five matches, while Agropecuario has won only two of their last six.
The expected goals indicate Patronato at 1.34 and Agropecuario at 0.57, supporting the idea of a low-scoring game. With a 30% chance for Over 2.5 goals and 33% for both teams to score, it’s possible that the match could defy expectations if Agropecuario finds their scoring touch.
Patronato vs Agropecuario: model vs market
| Source | Patronato | Draw | Agropecuario |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 54% | 31% | 15% |
| Market | 53% | 28% | 19% |
| Published | 53% | 29% | 18% |
| Edge | +1% | +3% | -4% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.34 vs 0.57.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.80, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
Patronato and Agropecuario expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.91
- Attack rating (Patronato / Agropecuario)
- 1.09 / 0.82
- Defence rating (Patronato / Agropecuario)
- 0.97 / 1.06
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Patronato vs Agropecuario score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Patronato goals. Columns: Agropecuario goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Patronato vs Agropecuario goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 33%
- No goals (0–0)
- 16%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Patronato vs Agropecuario
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Patronato | 53% | 1.87 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.49 | |
| Agropecuario | 18% | 5.59 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 30% | 3.36 |
| Under 2.5 | 70% | 1.42 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 33% | 3.01 |
| No | 67% | 1.50 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Patronato or draw) | 82% | 1.22 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.40 | |
| X2 (draw or Agropecuario) | 47% | 2.15 | |
| Handicap -1 | Patronato win by 2+ | 27% | 3.69 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 27% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Patronato and Agropecuario recent form
Patronato
2W 2D 2L
Agropecuario
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Patronato at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-7-4
- Win rate
- 35%
- Goals for / match
- 1.29
- Goals against / match
- 0.88
- Clean sheets
- 8 of 17
- They have won 7 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 16 of 33 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Agropecuario away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-5-10
- Win rate
- 12%
- Goals for / match
- 0.59
- Goals against / match
- 1.53
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 17
- They have won 10 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 15 of 33 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 8 penalties (62%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Patronato at home only, Agropecuario away only.
Patronato vs Agropecuario head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Patronato 0 · draws 1 · Agropecuario 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-07 | Agropecuario | 1-1 | Patronato | Primera Nacional |
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Before and after this match
- Patronato, previous: Tristan Suarez vs Patronato: odds and pick
- Agropecuario, previous: Agropecuario – Colegiales, 2026-10-17