Atletico DE Rafaela vs Patronato preview
Atletico DE Rafaela faces Patronato with a 36% chance of winning for the home side compared to 33% for the visitors. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which reflects Atletico DE Rafaela's expected goals of 1.17 against Patronato's 1.11.
Both teams to score stands at 48%, indicating a moderate likelihood that both sides will find the net. Recent form shows Atletico DE Rafaela with 2 draws and 3 losses in their last 5 matches, while Patronato has a mix of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss. This inconsistency could affect the outcome, making it possible for either team to secure a different result than predicted.
Atletico DE Rafaela vs Patronato: model vs market
| Source | Atletico DE Rafaela | Draw | Patronato |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42% | 31% | 27% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 42% | 31% | 27% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Atletico DE Rafaela and Patronato expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.31
- Attack rating (Atletico DE Rafaela / Patronato)
- 1.05 / 0.99
- Defence rating (Atletico DE Rafaela / Patronato)
- 1.40 / 1.07
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Atletico DE Rafaela vs Patronato score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Atletico DE Rafaela goals. Columns: Patronato goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Atletico DE Rafaela vs Patronato goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 47%
- No goals (0–0)
- 11%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Atletico DE Rafaela vs Patronato
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atletico DE Rafaela | 42% | 2.38 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.27 | |
| Patronato | 27% | 3.64 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 41% | 2.47 |
| Under 2.5 | 59% | 1.68 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47% | 2.11 |
| No | 53% | 1.90 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Atletico DE Rafaela or draw) | 73% | 1.38 |
| 12 (either side) | 69% | 1.44 | |
| X2 (draw or Patronato) | 58% | 1.72 | |
| Handicap -1 | Atletico DE Rafaela win by 2+ | 20% | 5.05 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Atletico DE Rafaela and Patronato recent form
Atletico DE Rafaela
2W 1D 3L
Patronato
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Atletico DE Rafaela at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 11-3-3
- Win rate
- 65%
- Goals for / match
- 1.29
- Goals against / match
- 0.71
- Clean sheets
- 11 of 17
- They have won 12 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
- They have kept 16 clean sheets in 34 matches.
- They have failed to score in 14 of 34 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Patronato away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-9-7
- Win rate
- 6%
- Goals for / match
- 0.41
- Goals against / match
- 1.06
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 17
- They have won 7 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 34 matches.
- They have failed to score in 17 of 34 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Atletico DE Rafaela at home only, Patronato away only.
Atletico DE Rafaela vs Patronato head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Atletico DE Rafaela 0 · draws 1 · Patronato 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-14 | Patronato | 0-0 | Atletico DE Rafaela | Primera Nacional |
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Before and after this match
- Atletico DE Rafaela, previous: Colegiales vs Atletico DE Rafaela: odds and pick
- Patronato, previous: Patronato vs Agropecuario: odds and pick