Acassuso vs Ferro Carril Oeste preview
In the match between Acassuso and Ferro Carril Oeste, the 1X2 probabilities show Ferro Carril Oeste at 45%, compared to Acassuso's 26%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a 9% chance according to our model. Acassuso's expected goals stand at 1.04, while Ferro Carril Oeste has a lower expected goals figure of 0.47.
Acassuso's recent form includes 2 draws and 3 wins in their last 6 matches, while Ferro Carril Oeste has 4 wins and 2 losses in the same period. The low likelihood of Over 2.5 goals at 19% and both teams to score at 25% suggests a tight contest. However, if Acassuso improves their scoring, the match dynamics could shift significantly.
Acassuso vs Ferro Carril Oeste: model vs market
| Source | Acassuso | Draw | Ferro Carril Oeste |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48% | 36% | 15% |
| Market | 19% | 26% | 54% |
| Published | 26% | 29% | 45% |
| Edge | +7% | +3% | -10% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.75, recorded — the top price across the 6 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -22.1% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Acassuso vs Ferro Carril Oeste odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Ferro Carril Oeste, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Acassuso | 5.00 | 4.73 | -0.27 |
| Draw | 3.30 | 3.45 | +0.15 |
| Ferro Carril Oeste | 1.67 | 1.69 | +0.02 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Acassuso and Ferro Carril Oeste expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.51
- Attack rating (Acassuso / Ferro Carril Oeste)
- 0.80 / 0.92
- Defence rating (Acassuso / Ferro Carril Oeste)
- 0.71 / 1.12
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Acassuso vs Ferro Carril Oeste score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Acassuso goals. Columns: Ferro Carril Oeste goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Acassuso vs Ferro Carril Oeste goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 25%
- No goals (0–0)
- 23%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Acassuso vs Ferro Carril Oeste
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Acassuso | 26% | 3.77 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.45 | |
| Ferro Carril Oeste | 45% | 2.25 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 19% | 5.17 |
| Under 2.5 | 81% | 1.24 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 25% | 3.95 |
| No | 75% | 1.34 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Acassuso or draw) | 55% | 1.80 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.41 | |
| X2 (draw or Ferro Carril Oeste) | 74% | 1.36 | |
| Handicap -1 | Ferro Carril Oeste win by 2+ | 3% | 29.67 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 12% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Acassuso and Ferro Carril Oeste recent form
Acassuso
3W 2D 1L
Ferro Carril Oeste
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Acassuso at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-4-8
- Win rate
- 29%
- Goals for / match
- 0.76
- Goals against / match
- 0.88
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 17
- They have won 8 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 34 matches.
- They have failed to score in 19 of 34 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Ferro Carril Oeste away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 9-6-2
- Win rate
- 53%
- Goals for / match
- 1.18
- Goals against / match
- 0.82
- Clean sheets
- 9 of 17
- They have won 19 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 16 clean sheets in 34 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 34 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Acassuso at home only, Ferro Carril Oeste away only.
Acassuso vs Ferro Carril Oeste head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Acassuso 0 · draws 0 · Ferro Carril Oeste 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-14 | Ferro Carril Oeste | 2-1 | Acassuso | Primera Nacional |
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Before and after this match
- Acassuso, previous: Central Norte v Acassuso analysis
- Ferro Carril Oeste, previous: Ferro Carril Oeste v Chaco For Ever analysis