San Miguel vs Deportivo Madryn preview
In the match between San Miguel and Deportivo Madryn, the 1X2 probabilities show Deportivo Madryn at 58% to win, while San Miguel sits at 16%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1 in favor of Deportivo Madryn, with a 14% chance.
San Miguel has struggled recently, with a record of L-D-L-L-D-D, while Deportivo Madryn has performed better, winning 3 of their last 6 matches. Both teams to score and Over 2.5 goals are both at 44%, indicating uncertainty about scoring. If San Miguel can improve their form, the predicted outcome may change.
San Miguel vs Deportivo Madryn: model vs market
| Source | San Miguel | Draw | Deportivo Madryn |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 16% | 26% | 58% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 16% | 26% | 58% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.66 vs 0.76.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
San Miguel and Deportivo Madryn expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.42
- Attack rating (San Miguel / Deportivo Madryn)
- 0.85 / 1.56
- Defence rating (San Miguel / Deportivo Madryn)
- 1.47 / 0.78
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
San Miguel vs Deportivo Madryn score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: San Miguel goals. Columns: Deportivo Madryn goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
San Miguel vs Deportivo Madryn goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 44%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for San Miguel vs Deportivo Madryn
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | San Miguel | 16% | 6.35 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.79 | |
| Deportivo Madryn | 58% | 1.73 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 44% | 2.29 |
| Under 2.5 | 56% | 1.77 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44% | 2.26 |
| No | 56% | 1.79 | |
| Double chance | 1X (San Miguel or draw) | 42% | 2.37 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Deportivo Madryn) | 84% | 1.19 | |
| Handicap -1 | Deportivo Madryn win by 2+ | 33% | 3.05 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
San Miguel and Deportivo Madryn recent form
San Miguel
0W 3D 3L
Deportivo Madryn
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
San Miguel at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-5-7
- Win rate
- 29%
- Goals for / match
- 0.88
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 17
- They have won 6 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 34 matches.
- They have failed to score in 12 of 34 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
Deportivo Madryn away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-7-5
- Win rate
- 29%
- Goals for / match
- 1.12
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 17
- They have won 14 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 34 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 34 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: San Miguel at home only, Deportivo Madryn away only.
San Miguel vs Deportivo Madryn head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: San Miguel 0 · draws 2 · Deportivo Madryn 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-14 | Deportivo Madryn | 2-2 | San Miguel | Primera Nacional |
| 2025-07-05 | San Miguel | 1-1 | Deportivo Madryn | Primera Nacional |
| 2025-03-02 | Deportivo Madryn | 2-1 | San Miguel | Primera Nacional |
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Before and after this match
- San Miguel, previous: Defensores De Belgrano vs San Miguel: odds and pick
- Deportivo Madryn, previous: Deportivo Madryn vs San Telmo prediction