Deportivo Madryn vs Deportivo Maipu preview
Deportivo Madryn faces Deportivo Maipu with a 59% chance for a home win according to our model. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which has an 18% probability. However, the match could see a different outcome if Deportivo Maipu's recent form, which includes 3 wins in their last 5 matches, influences their performance.
Both teams to score and Over 2.5 goals are each at 34%, indicating a low expectation for high-scoring action. Expected goals suggest Deportivo Madryn is likely to score 1.50 while Deportivo Maipu is projected at 0.56. The confidence grade for this prediction is C, indicating some uncertainty in the outcome.
Deportivo Madryn vs Deportivo Maipu: model vs market
| Source | Deportivo Madryn | Draw | Deportivo Maipu |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 59% | 28% | 13% |
| Market | 54% | 28% | 18% |
| Published | 55% | 28% | 17% |
| Edge | +1% | 0% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.50 vs 0.56.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.75, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -3.2% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Deportivo Madryn vs Deportivo Maipu odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Deportivo Madryn, 14 snapshots since 2026-11-08.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Madryn | 1.75 | 1.70 | -0.05 |
| Draw | 3.25 | 3.28 | +0.03 |
| Deportivo Maipu | 4.68 | 5.10 | +0.42 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Deportivo Madryn and Deportivo Maipu expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.06
- Attack rating (Deportivo Madryn / Deportivo Maipu)
- 1.53 / 1.07
- Defence rating (Deportivo Madryn / Deportivo Maipu)
- 0.72 / 0.85
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Deportivo Madryn vs Deportivo Maipu score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Deportivo Madryn goals. Columns: Deportivo Maipu goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Deportivo Madryn vs Deportivo Maipu goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 34%
- No goals (0–0)
- 14%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Deportivo Madryn vs Deportivo Maipu
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Deportivo Madryn | 55% | 1.81 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.57 | |
| Deportivo Maipu | 17% | 6.00 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 34% | 2.96 |
| Under 2.5 | 66% | 1.51 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 34% | 2.91 |
| No | 66% | 1.52 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Deportivo Madryn or draw) | 83% | 1.20 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| X2 (draw or Deportivo Maipu) | 45% | 2.24 | |
| Handicap -1 | Deportivo Madryn win by 2+ | 32% | 3.14 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 27% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Deportivo Madryn and Deportivo Maipu recent form
Deportivo Madryn
3W 2D 1L
Deportivo Maipu
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Deportivo Madryn at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 10-5-3
- Win rate
- 56%
- Goals for / match
- 1.78
- Goals against / match
- 0.78
- Clean sheets
- 7 of 18
- They have won 16 of their 36 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 14 clean sheets in 36 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 36 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
Deportivo Maipu away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-5-9
- Win rate
- 22%
- Goals for / match
- 1.11
- Goals against / match
- 1.22
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 18
- They have won 14 of their 36 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 36 matches.
- They have failed to score in 13 of 36 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Deportivo Madryn at home only, Deportivo Maipu away only.
Deportivo Madryn vs Deportivo Maipu head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Deportivo Madryn 3 · draws 3 · Deportivo Maipu 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-31 | Deportivo Maipu | 2-1 | Deportivo Madryn | Primera Nacional |
| 2025-04-26 | Deportivo Madryn | 1-1 | Deportivo Maipu | Primera Nacional |
| 2023-09-25 | Deportivo Maipu | 0-0 | Deportivo Madryn | Primera Nacional |
| 2023-05-13 | Deportivo Madryn | 2-3 | Deportivo Maipu | Primera Nacional |
| 2022-08-27 | Deportivo Maipu | 2-2 | Deportivo Madryn | Primera Nacional |
| 2021-01-31 | Deportivo Maipu | 2-0 | Deportivo Madryn | Torneo Federal A |
| 2021-01-10 | Deportivo Maipu | 3-0 | Deportivo Madryn | Torneo Federal A |
| 2020-02-09 | Deportivo Maipu | 1-4 | Deportivo Madryn | Torneo Federal A |
| 2019-09-15 | Deportivo Madryn | 3-0 | Deportivo Maipu | Torneo Federal A |
| 2015-08-02 | Deportivo Madryn | 2-0 | Deportivo Maipu | Torneo Federal A |
Other Round of 16 fixtures
- Atlanta vs CA Estudiantes 2026-11-14
- Temperley v Ciudad de Bolívar — match page 2026-11-14
- Colon Santa Fe vs Midland 2026-11-14
- Gimnasia Jujuy v Almirante Brown — match page 2026-11-14
- Deportivo Moron vs Colegiales — team news & stats 2026-11-15
- Ferro Carril Oeste vs Gimnasia Y Tiro 2026-11-15
Before and after this match
- Deportivo Madryn, previous: San Miguel v Deportivo Madryn analysis
- Deportivo Maipu, previous: Tristan Suarez vs Deportivo Maipu: odds and pick