Updated

Primera Nacional · Round of 16

Atlanta vs CA Estudiantes

Full time1 – 1

Alin prediction was Atlanta to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 0

12% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
AtlantaDrawCA Estudiantes

Atlanta vs CA Estudiantes: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceAtlantaDrawCA Estudiantes
Model57%26%17%
Market42%33%25%
Published46%31%23%
Edge+4%-2%-2%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.74 vs 0.86.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Atlanta below our published probability: +3.7 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Atlanta vs CA Estudiantes odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Atlanta, 10 snapshots since 2026-11-10.

Opened 1.88Now 2.17 +0.30
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Atlanta1.882.17+0.30
Draw2.992.80-0.19
CA Estudiantes4.313.69-0.62

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Atlanta and CA Estudiantes expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.74Atlanta
0.86CA Estudiantes
Total expected goals
2.59
Attack rating (Atlanta / CA Estudiantes)
1.12 / 1.18
Defence rating (Atlanta / CA Estudiantes)
1.01 / 1.35

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Atlanta vs CA Estudiantes score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 8.6% 5.3% 2.7% 0.8% 0.2% 1 11.9% 12.2% 4.8% 1.4% 0.3% 2 11.3% 9.7% 4.1% 1.2% 0.3% 3 6.5% 5.6% 2.4% 0.7% 0.2% 4+ 4.2% 3.6% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1%

Rows: Atlanta goals. Columns: CA Estudiantes goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Atlanta vs CA Estudiantes goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 91%
Over 1.5 74%
Over 2.5 48%
Over 3.5 26%
Both teams to score
48%
No goals (0–0)
9%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Atlanta vs CA Estudiantes

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Atlanta46%2.17
Draw31%3.22
CA Estudiantes23%4.35
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.548%2.09
Under 2.552%1.92
Both teams to scoreYes48%2.06
No52%1.94
Double chance1X (Atlanta or draw)77%1.30
12 (either side)69%1.45
X2 (draw or CA Estudiantes)54%1.85
Handicap -1Atlanta win by 2+33%3.04
Push (exactly one goal)24%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Atlanta and CA Estudiantes recent form

Atlanta 4W 1D 1L
CA Estudiantes 2W 1D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Atlanta at home

Record (W-D-L)
11-3-4
Win rate
61%
Goals for / match
1.22
Goals against / match
0.56
Clean sheets
11 of 18
  • They have won 19 of their 36 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They have kept 17 clean sheets in 36 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 9 of 36 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).

CA Estudiantes away

Record (W-D-L)
5-4-9
Win rate
28%
Goals for / match
0.78
Goals against / match
1.17
Clean sheets
6 of 18
  • They have won 13 of their 36 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They have kept 13 clean sheets in 36 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 13 of 36 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).

League matches this season before kick-off: Atlanta at home only, CA Estudiantes away only.

Atlanta vs CA Estudiantes head-to-head

Last 9 meetings: Atlanta 4 · draws 1 · CA Estudiantes 4.

AtlantaDrawsCA Estudiantes
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2023-06-19Atlanta3-2CA EstudiantesPrimera Nacional
2023-02-11CA Estudiantes2-0AtlantaPrimera Nacional
2022-09-03Atlanta1-0CA EstudiantesPrimera Nacional
2021-10-30Atlanta1-0CA EstudiantesPrimera Nacional
2021-07-05CA Estudiantes2-1AtlantaPrimera Nacional
2021-01-24CA Estudiantes1-0AtlantaPrimera Nacional
2020-12-19CA Estudiantes3-3AtlantaPrimera Nacional
2019-10-29CA Estudiantes1-2AtlantaPrimera Nacional
2019-03-09CA Estudiantes3-1AtlantaPrimera B Metropolitana

Other Round of 16 fixtures

Before and after this match